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Will the Yankees fall in September?

Teams remaining on the Yankees’ schedule teams have a combined winning percentage of .522.

The series are Oakland (as of yesterday), Toronto, Baltimore, Texas, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Boston, Toronto and Boston in October.

Entering yesterday’s series opener against Oakland, the Yankees had a 36-22 record against the aforementioned teams. If the Yankees duplicate that winning percentage the rest of the way, they’ll end up with roughly a 99-63 record.

Tampa Bay has an easier road ahead than the Yankees. The Rays entered yesterday having 32 games left against teams with a combined .480 winning percentage, and the AL upstarts are 43-24 against these competitors this year. If Tampa Bay duplicates those results, they’ll end up with a record of roughly 100 wins and 62 losses.

It’s hard to say at this point if the AL East winner needs to reach 100 wins to seal the division, but it should be plenty to ensure a playoff spot.

Baseball Prospectus doesn’t have either team reaching 100 wins, but gives Tampa a one-game edge in the standings by the season’s end.

Projections aside, the Yankees and Rays have two weighty series in September. Who comes out on top? Flip a coin. 


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