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Giants are virtual locks to win in a game that will never take place

Alabama head coach Nick Saban watches the team

Alabama head coach Nick Saban watches the team during practice at Barry University in Miami Shores, Fla., before the BCS national championship against Notre Dame. (Jan. 3, 2013) Photo Credit: AP

Hey, someone may have found a team that the Giants can beat!

John Ewing of PredictionMachine.com punched in the numbers just to see what would happen if the top team in the country in college football (Alabama) played the four worst teams in the NFL (the Giants, Jaguars, Steelers and Bucs, all 0-4).

So how did the college kids do? Not too well. Assuming the hypothetical games were played on a neutral field under NFL rules with equal time to prepare, each of the four winless NFL teams would have a 90 percent chance or better to beat the Crimson Tide. The Giants, though, had a 95.4 percent chance of winning with a projected score of 39-12. But, of the four NFL teams, only the Jaguars (91.4 percent) had a worse shot. The Bucs had the best chance (95.8 percent) followed closely by the Steelers (95.7).

The folks at PredictionMachine.com run the matchups 50,000 times to get those numbers. That means that in 50,000 games, the Giants would lose to Alabama only about 2,300 times. They'd win 47,700 times.

Ewing gives those numbers some context:

“The most likely straight-up victory of the NFL season thus far came in the Jacksonville at Seattle game, where the Seahawks were 95.0 percent likely to win over the Jaguars. Jacksonville at Denver will likely top that number in two weeks. So Alabama, or any college team, against even the worst NFL teams is like watching the Jaguars play the Seahawks or Broncos.”
 

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