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NFL Week 2 picks: Bills go 2-0 at MetLife Stadium, Browns top undermanned Jets; Jaguars lock of week

Quarterback Baker Mayfield #6 of the Cleveland Browns

Quarterback Baker Mayfield #6 of the Cleveland Browns throws in the fourth quarter against the Tennessee Titans at FirstEnergy Stadium on September 08, 2019 in Cleveland, Ohio. Tennessee defeated Cleveland 43-13.  Credit: Getty Images/Jamie Sabau

Week 1 is all about the unknown. Week 2 is all about the overreaction. Teams such as the Ravens, Titans and Raiders may not play a more complete game the rest of the season. The Bears, Steelers and Browns likely already played their worst.

Don't put too much stock into one week. There are a couple of overreaction lines, so take advantage. Underdogs went 10-6 against the spread (ATS) in Week 1, with five winning outright. There are eight road favorites, and a bunch of small point spreads, making this one of the more difficult weeks I've seen in a long time.

My most confident picks ATS are the Jaguars, Colts, Bengals and Broncos. Two tricky games to avoid: Browns-Jets and Eagles-Falcons.

BILLS (1-0) AT GIANTS (0-1)

Bills by 1.5; O/U: 43.5

TV: Ch. 2, 1 p.m.

For the second straight week, the Bills are playing at MetLife Stadium. And for the second straight week, I like New York (that's me taking Buffalo and making a "they're the only team that plays in New York" joke in case you didn't get it). The reason is the defenses: The Bills have one of the best and the Giants appear to have one of the worst. Rookie running back Devin Singletary will give Big Blue fits, as will Josh Allen's legs. This could be decided by a late field goal. Imagine if this 2019 matchup ended in a 20-19 final (see: Super Bowl XXV).

The pick: Bills

MONDAY NIGHT

BROWNS (0-1) AT JETS (0-1)

Browns by 6.5; O/U: 44

TV: ESPN, Ch. 11, 8:15 p.m.

This line jumped from Browns -2.5 to 6.5 faster than you can say, "Sam Darnold has mono?!" In addition to not having their starting quarterback, the Jets also won't have Quincy Enunwa, and Le'Veon Bell, C.J. Mosley and Quinnen Williams are all hurting. Wow, Friday the 13th came a day early for the Jets. So now it's Trevor Siemian in prime time. The Jets could keep this close for three quarters but won't have enough firepower to cover. This is a lot of points to lay on the road, especially with a team that just lost by 30 at home. But the Browns should make the necessary adjustments and Baker Mayfield has happy memories of facing the Jets (his first NFL game, a Thursday night comeback win last season). Also, Odell Beckham Jr. makes his MetLife Stadium return, and is always one to watch in prime time.

The pick: Browns

1 p.m. GAMES

COWBOYS (1-0) AT REDSKINS (0-1)

Cowboys by 5.5; O/U: 46.5

Washington was up 17-0 at Philly before folding  so this won't be a cakewalk for the Cowboys. Still, Dak Prescott looked like Roger Staubach against the Giants and Dallas just has too many weapons.

The pick: Cowboys

VIKINGS (1-0) AT PACKERS (1-0)

Packers by 3; O/U: 44

These two played a wild 29-29 tie at Lambeau in Week 2 last season. Expect another close one that should be up for grabs late. The Packers' defense looked great in the opener, but how much of that was because of Chicago's inept offense? Dalvin Cook looked explosive and the Vikings' balanced attack is a much bigger test for Green Bay.

The pick: Vikings

SEAHAWKS (1-0) AT STEELERS (0-1)

Steelers by 4; O/U: 47

In a rematch of Super Bowl XL, expect an extra-large effort from the Steelers. They laid an egg in prime time last week, even more reason to back them in their home opener. Seattle travels well, but it barely beat the Bengals at home and allowed Andy Dalton to throw for 418 yards. Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh will look nothing like the team that lost, 33-3, in Week 1.

The pick: Steelers

PATRIOTS (1-0) AT DOLPHINS (0-1)

Patriots by 18.5; O/U: 48.5

After Week 1, the Pats look as if they can go 16-0 while the Dolphins look like an 0-16 squad. Overreaction? Maybe the first one. The Dolphins look historically bad, and even though they're the biggest home underdog in over 30 years, I just can't take them. 38-10 sounds right.

The pick: Patriots

49ERS (1-0) AT BENGALS (0-1)

Bengals by 2; O/U: 45

If the Bengals lost by just one point at Seattle, why can't they beat the 49ers at home? Andy Dalton, off a career day, does his best work in 1 p.m. games (53-31-1 career record) and in Cincinnati (37-22-2).

The pick: Bengals

CHARGERS (1-0) AT LIONS (0-0-1)

Chargers by 2.5; O/U: 47.5

The Chargers are now down their starting tight end after already missing key starters. L.A. still has lots of talent, but it's a lot to overcome. Detroit gets the slight edge in its home opener a week after a tie that felt more like a loss.

The pick: Lions

CARDINALS (0-0-1) AT RAVENS (1-0)

Ravens by 13; O/U: 46.5

Baltimore isn't going to score 59 points again all season. While it can blow out a Cardinals team that looked putrid before a wild rally forced a 27-27 tie, this is a ton of points. Might we see a backdoor cover, say 34-17 to 34-24?

The pick: Cardinals

COLTS (0-1) AT TITANS (1-0)

Titans by 3; O/U: 43.5

You'd think this spread would be higher after Tennessee won by 30 on the road, but Vegas knows the Colts are still competitive with Jacoby Brissett. They lost to the Chargers in overtime, even after Adam Vinatieri left seven points off the board with two missed field goals and an extra point. Another reason this spread is the standard "home team favored by three": The Colts own the Titans, sweeping the series last year (38-10 and 33-17) and leading the series, 33-16. Indy's O-line can counter the Titans' pass rush, and this should come down to a late field goal (by Vinatieri?)

The pick: Colts

LOCK OF THE WEEK

JAGUARS (0-1) AT TEXANS (0-1)

Texans by 8.5; O/U: 43.5

You know a team had a tough Week 1 when you have to Google how to spell their new quarterback's name. Gardner Minshew takes over for the injured Nick Foles, and that's why this line is inflated. But the rookie played well in relief last week, going 22-for-25 for 275 yards and two scores and an INT. Houston should win its home opener but it has a tendency to play close ones. This figures to be a tight division game so take the points and benefit from this spread being an overreaction to the Foles injury.

The pick: Jaguars

4 p.m. Games

SAINTS (1-0) AT RAMS (1-0)

Rams by 2; O/U: 52

TV: Ch. 5

This NFC Championship rematch should be a fun one between evenly-matched teams (heck, even their Week 1 results were nearly identical: 30-27 and 30-28). I lean Saints because of the revenge factor after how they lost in January, and think they'll build on Monday night's dramatic walk-off win.

The pick: Saints

BEARS (0-1) AT BRONCOS (0-1)

Bears by 2.5; O/U: 40.5

This is the Week 2 chess match, as rookie head coach Vic Fangio faces his former defense. The Broncos coach is familiar with Mitch Trubisky and the Bears' limited offense, too. Denver is offensively challenged as well, so the under could be a good play. Take the points with a team playing its home opener in a tough stadium for visitors.

The pick: Broncos

CHIEFS (1-0) AT RAIDERS (1-0)

Chiefs by 7.5; O/U: 53.5

Kudos to Jon Gruden's team for a well-rounded win after all the drama. They won't beat the Chiefs (Derek Carr is 2-8 vs. KC), but they'll hang around long enough to cover against a team missing Tyreek Hill's big-play ability.

The pick: Raiders

SUNDAY NIGHT

EAGLES (1-0) AT FALCONS (0-1)

Eagles by 2; O/U: 52.5

TV: Ch. 4, 8:20 p.m.

You're probably wondering why the Eagles are such small favorites. Well, it is Atlanta's home opener, in prime time, and the Falcons are better than that Week 1 dud. The Eagles let Case Keenum throw for 380 yards and 3 TDs. Matt Ryan has a big night in a close one.

The pick: Falcons

Staff picks and standings

(best bets in bold)

Joe Manniello (6-10 overall, 1-0 best bets)

Bills Browns Cowboys Vikings

Steelers Patriots Bengals Lions

Cardinals Colts Jaguars Saints

Broncos Raiders Falcons

BOB GLAUBER (8-8, 0-1)

Bills Browns Redskins Vikings

Steelers Patriots Bengals Chargers

Ravens Titans Texans Rams

Bears Chiefs Eagles

TOM ROCK (6-10, 0-1)

Giants Browns Cowboys Vikings

Seahawks Patriots Bengals Lions

Ravens Colts Texans Rams

Bears Chiefs Falcons

AL IANNAZZONE (7-9, 1-0)

Bills Browns Cowboys Packers

Steelers Dolphins 49ers Chargers

Cardinals Titans Texans Saints

Bears Chiefs Falcons

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