CHIEFS (4-2) AT BRONCOS (2-4)
TV: Ch. 5, NFL, 8:20 p.m.
Chiefs by 3; O/U: 48.5
When the Chiefs were 4-0 and the Broncos were 0-4, this matchup was an afterthought. Now, after two losses by Kansas City and two wins by Denver, it's a must-watch.
The Chiefs are coming off a 37-point showing at home . . . over two weeks! The Colts (19-13 win) and Texans (31-24) supplied the blueprint to beat KC: Run the ball and keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline. The Chiefs allowed 180 yards and a TD on 45 carries to Indy, then 192/3/41 to Houston. The Colts had the ball for 37:15 and had 25 first downs; the Texans 39:48 and 35. Denver averages 116 rushing yards and has a physical runner in Phillip Lindsay.
The Chiefs are dealing with injuries and the defense is a mess, and now they're supposed to fix things on a short week?
This will be a close game the whole way. Mahomes is a bit hobbled, as is the offensive line, so don't think the Chiefs are an automatic play here after two losses.
Check out this stat courtesy of Spread Investor: Over the last four seasons (and last week), home teams on Thursday Night Football are 27-12-1 ATS from Week 6 on, a time when injuries start to take their toll. This could be decided by a field goal or less, and don't be surprised if Denver does the unthinkable: Hand KC its third straight loss.
The pick: Broncos
Bob Glauber: Chiefs
Tom Rock: Chiefs
Al Iannazzone: Chiefs