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NFL Week 7 TNF pick: Broncos at home a good play against stumbling Chiefs

Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay runs with the

Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay runs with the ball during the first half of an NFL game against the Titans on Sunday in Denver. Credit: AP/Jack Dempsey


TV: Ch. 5, NFL, 8:20 p.m.

Chiefs by 3; O/U: 48.5

When the Chiefs were 4-0 and the Broncos were 0-4, this matchup was an afterthought. Now, after two losses by Kansas City and two wins by Denver, it's a must-watch.

The Chiefs are coming off a 37-point showing at home . . . over two weeks! The Colts (19-13 win) and Texans (31-24) supplied the blueprint to beat KC: Run the ball and keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline. The Chiefs allowed 180 yards and a TD on 45 carries to Indy, then 192/3/41 to Houston. The Colts had the ball for 37:15 and had 25 first downs; the Texans 39:48 and 35. Denver averages 116 rushing yards and has a physical runner in Phillip Lindsay.

The Chiefs are dealing with injuries and the defense is a mess, and now they're supposed to fix things on a short week?

This will be a close game the whole way. Mahomes is a bit hobbled, as is the offensive line, so don't think the Chiefs are an automatic play here after two losses.

Check out this stat courtesy of Spread Investor: Over the last four seasons (and last week), home teams on Thursday Night Football are 27-12-1 ATS from Week 6 on, a time when injuries start to take their toll. This could be decided by a field goal or less, and don't be surprised if Denver does the unthinkable: Hand KC its third straight loss.

The pick: Broncos

Staff picks

Bob Glauber: Chiefs

Tom Rock: Chiefs

Al Iannazzone: Chiefs

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