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NFL Week 10 picks: Jets win, Giants don't; Surging Saints lock of week; Chiefs cover huge number

Underdogs still lead for the season, but favorites could be in for a big week as there are several mismatches on the Week 10 card. 

Michael Thomas and the streaking Saints will dial

Michael Thomas and the streaking Saints will dial up another win in Cincinnati this Sunday.  Photo Credit: Getty Images/Wesley Hitt

Vegas took a pounding in Week 9 as the public cashed on big favorites and popular teams to back (see: the Chiefs).

There aren't that many compelling matchups this week and favorites could have a field day. They went 7-6 against the spread in Week 9 but underdogs still lead, 65-58-6, for the season.

My most-confident picks ATS this week are the Saints, Patriots, Chiefs and Lions. Two tricky games to avoid: Bills-Jets and Giants-49ers.

Remember, I pick every game but you don't have to.

BILLS (2-7) AT JETS (3-6)

Jets by 7; O/U: 36.5

TV: Ch. 2, 1 p.m

The only thing worse than having to pick this game is having tickets for it! If you want to take the points against a Jets team that has scored 17, 10 and 6 points the last three weeks, and will be without Sam Darnold, it's understandable. But here's why I'm backing the Jets: They're home before their bye, and while a win over the woeful Bills won't change their season, it will at least provide some positivity going into the week off. Also, save for a 27-point eruption at Minnesota, Buffalo has scored 3, 0, 13 and 5 points in its other four road games. If the Jets win 9-3, then so be it, but here's hoping it's 20-10. 

The pick: Jets


GIANTS (1-7) AT 49ERS (2-7)

49ERS by 3; O/U: 44

TV: ESPN, Ch. 11, 8:15 p.m.

Anyone else tired of seeing these teams in prime time? Interestingly, the Giants were also 1-7 when they visited San Francisco last year, a 31-21 loss. If the Giants win, it wouldn't be a shock. But the more likely scenario is that 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan, equipped with 10-plus days to prepare, will have a master plan for Nick Mullens. The third-stringer threw three touchdowns in his debut and his passer rating of 151.9 was the highest by a quarterback with at least 20 attempts in his first NFL game since 1970. Expect a prime-time encore for Montana, er, Mullens. 

The pick: 49ers



Patriots by 6.5; O/U: 46.5

It's tempting to take Tennessee at home with so many points here after an impressive win on MNF. But the Patriots aren't the Cowboys. New England South, with former Patriots Mike Vrabel, Dion Lewis and Malcolm Butler in Tennessee, are outclassed. The Pats have rolled off six straight wins and were a half point away from going 6-0 ATS. They've scored at least 38 points in four of those wins. The Titans average 16.8 points per game.

The pick: Patriots


Chiefs by 16.5; O/U: 49.5

When Buffalo won outright at Minnesota as a 16.5-point underdog in Week 3, I said I'd never take that big a favorite again. Um, well, about that. Arizona is 0-6 against teams not named the 49ers, being held to 6, 0, 14, 17, 17 and 10 points. The Chiefs (NFL-best 7-1-1 ATS) lead the league with 36.3 points per game. In four home games, they've scored 45, 38 and 30 twice. Lay the points and don't even give it a second thought: Chiefs 45, Cardinals 17.

The pick: Chiefs

REDSKINS (5-3) AT BUCS (3-6)

Bucs by 3; O/U: 51

Washington lost two offensive linemen to season-ending injuries during the Falcons loss, and could be down another starter or two on the O-line. Yikes! This Bucs team is hard to figure, but they should be able to beat a banged-up Redskins team . . . I think.

The pick: Bucs



Saints by 5.5; O/U: 54

It's the 14th edition of the "Who Dat vs. Who Dey" Bowl. This is the classic scenario for a letdown, as the Saints just handed the Rams their first loss in a thriller and now go on the road against an AFC team off its bye. New Orleans also has the Eagles and Falcons flying into town after this, so maybe it'll be looking ahead. Those theories are sometimes overblown, and here's the thing: New Orleans has won seven straight, covered in its last six and looks unstoppable. The Bengals don't have A.J. Green. The Saints have Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, and they won't phone it in.

The pick: Saints

FALCONS (4-4) AT BROWNS (2-6-1)

Falcons by 5.5; O/U: 50.5

Atlanta looked like a different team last week in a 38-14 win off its bye. The Browns are dealing with defensive injuries and while they were a good underdog bet early on, they've failed to cover in three of their last four games. Philip Rivers (38), Ben Roethlisberger (33) and Patrick Mahomes (37) have spearheaded big point totals against them the last month and Matt Ryan should do the same.

The pick: Falcons

LIONS (3-5) AT BEARS (5-3)

Bears by 6.5; O/U: 44

Detroit has lost two in a row and just allowed 10 sacks at Minnesota. The Bears should win at home, but this is too many points. Detroit has beaten Chicago three in a row and nine of 10. These teams meet again on Thanksgiving.

The pick: Lions

JAGUARS (3-5) AT COLTS (3-5)

Colts by 3; O/U: 47

One team won two in a row to get to 3-5. The other lost four in a row to get to 3-5. Both teams are off a bye, and everything we've seen in the last few weeks says the Colts should beat the dysfunctional Jaguars at home. But this is the NFL, and when you pick every game every week you realize nothing is what it seems. This is the 2018 "George Costanza Opposite Game." I'll go against what seems to be an obvious choice in Indy and take a shot that Jacksonville figured things out during the week off.

The pick: Jaguars


SEAHAWKS (4-4) AT RAMS (8-1)

Rams by 10; O/U: 51

TV: Ch. 2

The Rams will get back on track at home after their first loss, but this is too many points to lay against a solid division opponent. Seattle lost the first meeting, 33-31, and it won at L.A. last year. The offensive line is improved and the Seahawks will keep the Rams' offense on the sideline enough for the cover.

The pick: Seahawks


Packers by 10; O/U: 47.5

After back-to-back road losses to the Rams and Patriots, the Packers finally catch a break from the schedule makers. Their last home game was Oct. 15, a MNF scare as they held off San Francisco. This won't be close as Aaron Rodgers and the Pack take out their frustration on a depleted Dolphins team.

The pick: Packers


Chargers by 10; O/U: 50

TV: Ch. 5

The Chargers have won five in a row, including 26-10 over the Raiders in Week 5. This is a lot of points to lay on the road in the division, but how can you back Oakland after a 34-3 loss at San Francisco? The Raiders are 1-6-1 ATS, which believe it or not is one more win than my record (0-8 ATS) picking Chargers games. That changes on Sunday.

The pick: Chargers



Eagles by 7; O/U: 43

TV: Ch. 4, 8:20 p.m.

Week 10 doesn't feature many exciting matchups, with the best game being on Thursday night. Cowboys-Eagles in prime time at least has that NFC East rivalry thing going for it. Had Dallas won at home on Monday night, this would've had more juice with both teams at 4-4 and a possible share of first place on the line. The Eagles are off a bye after the London win. A rested Philly team has the big edge over a Dallas team on a short week. The Cowboys are 0-4 on the road. Look for Golden Tate to have a big game in his Eagles debut. The former Lion torched Dallas in Week 4 with eight catches for 132 yards and two touchdowns. Carson Wentz gets him involved right away as the Eagles soar to a comfortable win.

The pick: Eagles


(best bets in bold)


59-69-6 overall, 5-4 best bets

Last week: 5-8

Jets 49ers Patriots Chiefs

Bucs Saints Falcons Lions Jaguars 

Seahawks Packers Chargers Eagles 


58-70-6, 3-6

Last week: 7-6

Jets 49ers Patriots Chiefs

Bucs Bengals Falcons Bears Jaguars

Rams Packers Chargers Eagles 


67-61-6, 4-5

Last week: 11-2

Bills Giants Patriots Chiefs

Bucs Saints Falcons Bears Jaguars

Rams Dolphins Chargers Eagles


67-61-6, 6-3

Last week: 8-5

Jets Giants Patriots Chiefs

Bucs Saints Falcons Bears Jaguars

Rams Packers Chargers Eagles


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