NFL Week 12 TNF pick: Colts have owned Texans, so take the points

COLTS (6-4) AT TEXANS (6-4)

TV: Ch. 5, NFL, 8:20 p.m.

Line: Texans by 3.5; O/U: 45.5

In Week 7, this was one of the most difficult games to pick. It's the same story in Week 12 with first place in the AFC South on the line.

The Colts won the first meeting, 30-23, as Jacoby Brissett threw for 326 yards and four touchdowns. Deshaun Watson had just one TD pass and was intercepted twice. Watson is coming off one of his worst games in a 41-7 loss at Baltimore, so my first thought was to back him and the Texans. But this has been a one-sided rivalry and the Colts are getting points.

The Colts own the Texans: 28-8 all-time record, including three in a row. Two of those wins were at Houston last season, including in the playoffs. Yes, those were with Andrew Luck, but Brissett has proved to be a quality starter and Indy still has Frank Reich, a dominant offensive line and a defense that has contained Watson.

If the Colts have T.Y. Hilton (game-time decision), this goes from a tough pick to an easier one. In 15 career games against the Texans, the receiver has 82 catches for 1,519 yards and 10 TDs. He's had monster performances at Houston. Even if he doesn't play, expect Reich, Brissett and the offensive and defensive lines to keep this close the whole way and be in position to win.

The pick: Colts