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NFL Week 15 TNF pick: Take the Colts at home over the Broncos

Colts vs. Broncos on Thursday night could be decided by a late kick from Adam Vinatieri.

Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri reacts after kicking the

Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri reacts after kicking the tying extra point during a game against the Bills, Sunday, Dec. 10, 2017, in Orchard Park, N.Y. Photo Credit: AP / Adrian Kraus

BRONCOS (4-9) AT COLTS (3-10)

TV: Ch. 4, NFL, 8:25 p.m.; Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

Broncos by 2.5; O/U: 40.5

When the Broncos visited the Colts in prime time two seasons ago, it was one of the most anticipated games of the season. Peyton Manning vs. Andrew Luck in the old Colt’s homecoming. Now? Trevor Siemian vs. Jacoby Brissett doesn’t have the same pizzazz, does it? But look on the bright side: This is the final Thursday Night Football game of the season. This should be a close game, but it won’t register the same excitement level as that Sunday night thriller from 2015 when Luck and the Colts dealt Manning and 7-0 Denver its first loss of the season.

Denver shut out the Jets at home last week to stop an eight-game losing streak in which it generated hardly any offense. It still has playmakers on defense, but this spread feels a bit inflated because of one win. The Colts are happy to be back at home in the dome after a brutal snow-vertime loss in Buffalo. For the most part, Indy has been competitive at home, its most memorable effort coming in a 20-17 loss to the Steleers in which it led 17-3 in the third quarter. Denver, which celebrated its skid-snapping win over the Jets as if it had just won the Super Bowl, got crushed in its last road game at Miami two weeks ago.

This feels like an Adam Vinatieri type of game, with the Colts kicker winning it late as both teams score in the teens. T.Y. Hilton always seems to have strong showings at home, so don’t be surprised to see him break free for a long touchdown. This is a stay-away game, but play the under if you must. The edge goes to the home team because this spread should probably be a pick ’em.

The pick: Colts

STAFF PICKS

Bob Glauber: Broncos

Tom Rock: Colts

Calvin Watkins: Broncos

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