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NFL Week 16 picks: Bills beat Patriots, Cowboys top Eagles; Ravens lock of week; Jets, Giants don't cover

Tre'Davious White and the Bills have what it

Tre'Davious White and the Bills have what it takes to pick off the Patriots in Foxborough Saturday.  Credit: Getty Images/Bryan M. Bennett

The penultimate week of the 2019 regular season is loaded with drama and it kicks off with an intriguing tripleheader on Saturday. Just call it Revenge Week as eight of this week's games are rematches from earlier in the season. Cowboys-Eagles and Packers-Vikings have the biggest stakes.

Underdogs went 7-9 against the spread last week for only their second losing week this season and are now 121-97-5. Favorites should have another strong week.

My most confident picks ATS are the Ravens, Bills, Cardinals, Falcons and Broncos. Stay away from Saints-Titans and Panthers-Colts.

Saturday's games

TEXANS (9-5) AT BUCS (7-7)

TV: NFL, 1 p.m.

Texans by 3; O/U: 50.5

Win over the Pats. Loss to the Broncos. Win over the Titans. If the pattern holds true, Houston’s roller-coaster ride should hit a speed bump in Tampa Bay. But I don’t see that happening, not after a season-changing victory at Tennessee. Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins and the Texans will stay on track knowing a win clinches the AFC South. Jameis Winston made NFL history by throwing for more than 450 yards in back-to-back games, but he is now without top receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

The pick: Texans

BILLS (10-4) AT PATRIOTS (11-3)

TV: NFL, 4:30 p.m.

Patriots by 6; O/U: 37

Both teams clinched playoff spots last week and the AFC East is still up for grabs even though the Pats would have to lose out (they host Miami in Week 17). So the Bills are essentially locked into the fifth seed, even if they pull off the upset here. I see it happening, too. Buffalo's secondary, led by Tre'Davious White, should give Tom Brady and a limited receiving corps problems. This will be low scoring like the first meeting, a 16-10 Pats win in Week 4. Getting all these points with a top defense in a rivalry game feels like a steal, and we've learned these young Bills show up when playing in a standalone game: Wins at Dallas on Thanksgiving and at Pittsburgh last Sunday night.

The pick: Bills

RAMS (8-6) AT 49ERS (11-3)

TV: NFL, 8:15 p.m.

49ers by 6.5; O/U: 44.5

When the 4-0 49ers played at L.A. in Week 6, many thought they weren't ready to unseat the defending NFC West champs. Not me. San Francisco was my lock that week, and while I'm not as confident as the first meeting (a 20-7 49ers win), I still expect a win and cover. The 49ers should be getting some defensive players back that didn't play in the stunning loss to the Falcons. Jared Goff had just 78 yards passing in the first matchup, and with the Rams' season all but ending in Dallas last week, it should be a long night for him against Nick Bosa and the 49ers' pass rush.

The pick: 49ers

Sunday's 1 p.m. Games

STEELERS (8-6) AT JETS (5-9)

TV: Ch. 2

Steelers by 3; O/U: 37

Don’t assume the Steelers are a lock to roll here. Teams get up for their home finales. In a lost season, the Jets could treat this as their Super Bowl, a chance to hurt a team’s playoff chances. Still, Pittsburgh’s defense is too good, allowing more than 20 points just once in its last six games. With the Steelers still controlling their playoff destiny (win, win and in), the Jets won’t  get in their way.

The pick: Steelers

GIANTS (3-11) AT REDSKINS (3-11)

TV: Ch. 5

Redskins by 2; O/U: 41

From two wins and the likely No. 2 pick to four wins and . . . ? Giants fans with an eye on the draft might want to look away as Big Blue could get its first winning streak since Week 4, when it was 2-2 after beating Washington, 24-3, in Daniel Jones’ home debut. Dwayne Haskins is much improved from that game, though, and Jones is returning from an injury. I went back and forth on this one (anyone have a quarter?), but I'll take the home team that was a late drive away from beating the Eagles last week.

The pick: Redskins

SAINTS (11-3) AT TITANS (8-6)    

Saints by 2.5; O/U: 49.5

Both teams have a lot to play for, with New Orleans in the hunt for home field and Tennessee needing to win to stay alive for the sixth seed. The Titans are more desperate and Derrick Henry could exploit some of the Saints' defensive holes caused by injuries.

The pick: Titans

JAGUARS (5-9) AT FALCONS (5-9)

Falcons by 7; O/U: 46.5

Give Dan Quinn credit: His team hasn’t quit on him. After a 1-7 start, the Falcons have gone 4-2 after their bye week, with two of the wins road stunners at New Orleans and San Francisco. I don’t see a letdown here at home against a Jaguars team that has shown little fight except for a few minutes in Oakland.

The pick: Falcons

LOCK OF THE WEEK

RAVENS (12-2) AT BROWNS (6-8)

Ravens by 10; O/U: 49.5

Baltimore, led by MVP frontrunner Lamar Jackson, has done whatever it's wanted for most of the season, juking and high-stepping to a first-round bye and likely home field for the playoffs. One thing it hasn't been able to do is play a revenge game (that's what happens when you have only two losses). The Browns blitzed Baltimore, 40-25, back in Week 4, and now it's the Ravens' turn to do the same to them in Cleveland. This might be the last complete game Baltimore plays until the divisional round, as it could rest starters in Week 17. With extra rest after beating the Jets on TNF, expect Jackson, Mark Ingram and a different defense than the one that gave up 40 the first time to dominate. Baltimore picks up its eighth win by double digits as it exacts a little RAVENge.

The pick: Ravens

PANTHERS (5-9) AT COLTS (6-8)

Colts by 6.5; O/U: 46.5

From facing the record holder for TD passes in Drew Brees to a rookie making his first start in Will Grier, the Colts’ home finale should go a lot smoother than Monday night did. Still, this feels like a couple too many points for a struggling offense.

The pick: Panthers

BENGALS (1-13) AT DOLPHINS (3-11)

Bengals by 1; O/U: 46.5

Remember when this matchup looked as if it might be 0-14 vs. 0-14? Thanks to our friends at NFL Pickwatch for informing us that this is the first time Miami has been favored all season . . . until it wasn't as of press time. The Dolphins have beaten the Eagles and Jets at home, and the Bengals are 0-7 on the road.

The pick: Dolphins

4 p.m. Games

COWBOYS (7-7) AT EAGLES (7-7)

Cowboys by 1.5; O/U: 45.5

Who knows what to expect from these two unpredictable teams? With the NFC East title on the line, you figure it will be a lot closer than the Cowboys’ 37-10 win on SNF in Week 7. Dallas finally beat a team with a winning record as it crushed the Rams, 44-21, last week. Philadelphia needed last-second TDs to beat the Giants and Redskins, and their current best receiver was a college quarterback. Dallas is the healthier team and I think they’ll build off last week to win the East.

The pick: Cowboys

CARDINALS (4-9-1) AT SEAHAWKS (11-3)

Seahawks by 10; O/U: 51

Seattle won the first meeting, 27-10, at Arizona in Week 4. Expect this one to be closer as the Seahawks have a tendency of playing close games at home. None of their previous four wins there – 21-20, 30-29, 40-34 in OT and 37-30 – would have covered this number. Kyler Murray and the Cards are 4-1-1 ATS as road underdogs.

The pick: Cardinals

RAIDERS (6-8) AT CHARGERS (5-9)

Chargers by 7; O/U: 45

Oakland is 0-4 since beating the Chargers on TNF, which coincided with me tweeting that the Raiders were playoff-bound (sorry, Raider Nation). After last week’s demoralizing loss in the Oakland finale, it’s hard to imagine Derek Carr & Co. having anything left in the tank.

The pick: Chargers

LIONS (3-10-1) AT BRONCOS (5-9)

Broncos by 7; O/U: 37.5

Forget about the snow-show in Kansas City. Drew Lock and Denver had something going with wins over the Chargers and Texans, and the rookie should bounce back against a Lions team that has lost seven straight and is 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine.

The pick: Broncos

SUNDAY NIGHT

CHIEFS (10-4) AT BEARS (7-7)

TV: Ch. 4

Chiefs by 6; O/U: 44.5

The Chiefs (5-1 on the road) have won and covered four straight, and with them still being in the hunt for a first-round bye, expect them to stay hot.

The pick: Chiefs

MONDAY NIGHT

PACKERS (11-3) AT VIKINGS (10-4)

TV: ESPN

Vikings by 5.5; O/U: 46

This year’s Monday Night Finale should be a fun one. Minnesota needs to go 2-0 and have Green Bay go 0-2 to win the NFC North. With the Packers playing the Lions Week 17, that isn’t going to happen. The Vikings are in the playoffs with a win (or a Rams loss Saturday night). Kirk Cousins is 0-8 on MNF but I expect him to get the Monday monkey off his back as the Vikings improve to 7-0 at home and avenge a 21-16 loss at Green Bay in Week 2.

The pick: Vikings

STAFF STANDINGS AND PICKS

(best bets in bold)

JOE MANNIELLO

105-114-5 overall, 7-8 best bets

Last week: 5-11

Texans Bills 49ers Steelers

Redskins Titans Falcons Ravens

Panthers Dolphins Cowboys Cardinals

Chargers Broncos Chiefs Vikings

BOB GLAUBER

101-118-5, 6-9

Last week: 8-8

Texans Patriots 49ers Steelers

Giants Saints Jaguars Browns

Colts Dolphins Cowboys Seahawks

Raiders Broncos Chiefs Vikings

TOM ROCK

109-110-5, 7-7-1

Last week: 11-5

Texans Patriots 49ers Jets

Giants Saints Falcons Ravens

Colts Dolphins Eagles Seahawks

Chargers Broncos Chiefs Packers

AL IANNAZZONE

109-110-5, 5-10

Last week: 10-6

Texans Patriots Rams Steelers

Redskins Saints Falcons Ravens

Colts Dolphins Eagles Seahawks

Raiders Broncos Chiefs Vikings

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