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NFL Week 2 picks: Seattle stops New England, Baltimore lock of the week; Giants cover, Jets don't

Russell Wilson of the Seahawks reacts after a

Russell Wilson of the Seahawks reacts after a rushing touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday in Atlanta. Credit: Getty Images/Kevin C. Cox

Week 1 is always the most difficult to pick NFL games. Just look at my record. Wait, please don’t. Week 2, however, can be one of the best ones. Why? It’s all about overreactions. Some lines move a point or two too many because of the public making too much out of one game.

Favorites went 8-7-1 against the spread in Week 1. Interestingly, six of the seven underdogs that covered won outright. Home teams went 8-8 straight up and 9-6-1 ATS.

My three most confident picks this week ATS are Baltimore, Kansas City and Arizona. One to stay away from: New Orleans at Las Vegas on MNF.

GAME OF THE WEEK

SUNDAY NIGHT

NEW ENGLAND (1-0) AT SEATTLE (1-0)

TV: Ch. 4, 8:20 p.m.

Seattle by 4; O/U: 44.5

This is my sixth year writing the NFL picks column, and whenever the Seahawks are in prime time, I always search Russell Wilson on Pro-Football-Reference. Specifically, his "career split stats." Scroll down and you’ll find out that Wilson is a) 48-16 at home; b) 25-7-1 in prime time; and c) 7-1 vs. the AFC East. After a 31-for-35, 322-yard, 4-TD Week 1 performance, expect him to have another big game against a Pats defense that is missing key pieces. Cam Newton had a strong New England debut, but he’s going to need to win this game with his arm and not his legs – 13 of his 15 rushes in Week 1 were designed plays. Jamal Adams, who was all over the field in his Seahawks debut, won’t let Newton run wild like Miami did.

The pick: Seattle

1 p.m. GAMES

GIANTS (0-1) AT CHICAGO (1-0)

TV: Ch. 2

Chicago by 5.5; O/U: 42

If Joe Judge saw my Week 1 record, he would’ve made me do 12 laps (one for every game I got wrong). The taskmaster remained optimistic after Daniel Jones’ costly interception changed the course of Big Blue’s opening loss to Pittsburgh, and it’ll be interesting to see how these new Giants respond to adversity. Mitchell Trubisky had the best quarter of his life in Detroit, throwing three fourth-quarter TD passes, but let’s not forget about all the other bad quarters. This is a couple too many points to lay with Trubisky.

The pick: Giants

SAN FRANCISCO (0-1) AT JETS (0-1)

TV: Ch. 5

San Francisco by 7; O/U: 41.5

Good news, Jets fans: Things can’t get much worse than the Buffalo debacle. Or could they? My first thought was that maybe the Jets could keep this under a touchdown against a 49ers team making a cross-country trip and dealing with some injuries. On second thought: Just take the much better team no matter the spread. Nick Bosa and that golden pass rush could pitch a shutout.

The pick: San Francisco

L.A. RAMS (1-0) AT PHILADELPHIA (0-1)

Pick 'em; O/U: 45.5

This line went from Eagles -4 to a pick 'em. A bit of an overreaction after Philly blew a 17-0 lead and Los Angeles beat Dallas, but there’s good reason to back the visitors: The Rams are 18-6 straight up on the road under Sean McVay and they have this guy named Aaron Donald. No. 99 should have no problem against a banged-up Eagles offensive line.

The pick: Los Angeles

ATLANTA (0-1) AT DALLAS (0-1)

Dallas by 4.5; O/U: 53

This line dropped from Cowboys -7 to -4.5. Both teams are probably better than they showed in Week 1, and with neither wanting to start 0-2, expect a back-and-forth, high-scoring matchup. Dallas is really hurting at the linebacker position, and Matt Ryan should be able to exploit that and keep this close.

The pick: Atlanta

DETROIT (0-1) AT GREEN BAY (1-0)

Green Bay by 6.5; O/U: 49.5

Detroit blew a 17-point lead in Week 1 after giving up an 18-point lead in its opener last season. At least that one ended in a tie. Now, the Lions must stop a Packers offense that just dropped 43 on the Vikings. Aaron Rodgers is 15-5 all-time vs. Detroit, with 41 TDs to just 8 INTs.

The pick: Green Bay

MINNESOTA (0-1) AT INDIANAPOLIS (0-1)

Indianapolis by 3; O/U: 48.5

Imagine what it must have been like in defensive meetings for Minnesota after it gave up 522 yards and 43 points to Green Bay. Expect the Vikings to get after Philip Rivers and win a close one at Indy, which will feel the loss of versatile back Marlon Mack.

The pick: Minnesota

CAROLINA (0-1) AT TAMPA BAY (0-1)

Tampa Bay by 9; O/U: 47.5

Tom Brady will bounce-Buc in his new home debut but covering isn’t a lock. Matt Rhule’s bunch showed some fight in a 34-30 loss to Las Vegas, and I’ll roll the dice that Christian McCaffrey keeps this to single digits.

The pick: Carolina

DENVER (0-1) AT PITTSBURGH (1-0)

Pittsburgh by 7.5; O/U: 40.5

What will the Steelers defense do for an encore after holding Saquon Barkley to six yards on 15 carries? It’s hard to pick against Pittsburgh here, with Ben Roethlisberger (229 yards, 3 TDs vs. Giants) playing in his first home game since Week 2 in 2019.

The pick: Pittsburgh

BUFFALO (1-0) AT MIAMI (0-1)

Buffalo by 5.5; O/U: 41

The Bills need to thank the schedule makers for starting against the Jets and Dolphins. Josh Allen threw three TD passes and added a rushing TD as Buffalo won, 37-20, at Miami last season. It will roll again.

The pick: Buffalo

JACKSONVILLE (1-0) AT TENNESSEE (1-0)

Tennessee by 8.5; O/U: 43.5

The Week 1 Minshew Magic won’t carry over against a Tennessee team that left 10 points (three missed FGs, one XP) off the board in a 16-14 win at Denver. Derrick Henry dominates the Jaguars: In the last two home meetings (42-20 and 30-9 wins), Henry had 159 yards and two TDs, and before that 238 yards and four scores, including a 99-yarder.

The pick: Tennessee

4 p.m. GAMES & LATER

LOCK OF THE WEEK

BALTIMORE (1-0) AT HOUSTON (0-1)

Baltimore by 7; O/U: 50

If this game was in Baltimore, the line suggests the Ravens would be 13-point favorites. Sounds high, but it isn’t. Baltimore blitzed Houston, 41-7, at home last season in Week 11, and there’s no reason to think the Texans will be in this one. Lamar Jackson threw four TD passes in that meeting, and he showed in last week’s 38-6 win over Cleveland that he could make another MVP run. Deshaun Watson was sacked six times in last year’s meeting and, like the opener in Kansas City, will be on the run again.

The pick: Baltimore

KANSAS CITY (1-0) AT L.A. CHARGERS (1-0)

TV: Ch. 2

Kansas City by 8.5; O/U: 47.5

When Kansas City beat L.A., 24-17, in Mexico City in Week 11 last season, it started a 10-0 ATS run. That included last year’s Super Bowl ride, and the opening 34-20 win over Houston. Keep backing Patrick Mahomes, who is 9-0 in September and 11-1 against the AFC West. Oh, and KC is 27-3 against division foes since the start of the 2015 season.

The pick: Kansas City

WASHINGTON (1-0) AT ARIZONA (1-0)

Arizona by 7; O/U: 46.5

Give Washington credit for rallying from 17-0 down to stun Philadelphia. Don’t make too much of it, though. Arizona showed it’s a playoff contender with a 24-20 win at defending NFC champion San Francisco. Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins (14 catches and 151 yards in his Cards debut) are the most electrifying QB-WR tandem in the NFL. Arizona scores 30-plus for a 2-0 start.

The pick: Arizona

MONDAY NIGHT

NEW ORLEANS (1-0) AT LAS VEGAS (1-0)

TV: ESPN, 8:20 p.m.

New Orleans by 5.5; O/U: 49

Drew Brees has had success on MNF (16-9 straight up), but without top target Michael Thomas, this won’t be easy. The Raiders can pound the ball and control time of possession with Josh Jacobs (3 TDs in opener). Even without fans, expect Jon Gruden to have his Raiders pumped for their Las Vegas debut.

The pick: Las Vegas

STAFF PICKS AND STANDINGS

(best bets in bold)

JOE MANNIELLO

3-12-1 overall, 1-0 best bets

Giants San Francisco L.A. Rams Atlanta

Green Bay Minnesota Carolina Pittsburgh

Buffalo Tennessee Baltimore Kansas City

Arizona Seattle Las Vegas

BOB GLAUBER

10-5-1, 1-0

Chicago San Francisco Philadelphia Dallas

Green Bay Minnesota Tampa Bay Pittsburgh

Miami Jacksonville Baltimore Kansas City

Arizona Seattle New Orleans

TOM ROCK

7-8-1, 0-1

Giants San Francisco LA Rams Dallas

Green Bay Minnesota Tampa Bay Pittsburgh

Buffalo Jacksonville Baltimore Kansas City

Arizona Seattle Las Vegas

AL IANNAZZONE

10-5-1, 1-0

Chicago San Francisco L.A. Rams Dallas

Green Bay Minnesota Carolina Pittsburgh

Buffalo Tennessee Baltimore Kansas City

Arizona Seattle New Orleans

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