43° Good Evening
43° Good Evening

NFL Week 4 picks

Buffalo Bills head coach Rex Ryan speaks to

Buffalo Bills head coach Rex Ryan speaks to the media during minicamp in Orchard Park, N.Y. on June 16, 2015. Credit: AP / Bill Wippert

LOCK OF THE WEEK: GIANTS (1-2) AT BILLS (2-1), 1 p.m.

TV: Ch. 5;

Radio: WCBS (880)

Bills by 5 1/2; O/U: 45 1/2

Remember a few seasons ago when the Giants' running backs were nicknamed, "Earth, Wind & Fire." Now, it's more like "One Direction." As in going nowhere. Rashad Jennings is averaging 2.9 yards per carry, Andre Williams 3.3 and Shane Vereen 3.7. The Bills' defense, led by tackle Marcell Dareus, is allowing a league-low 74 yards on the ground and will control this game. If you watched the Giants-Redskins game last Thursday, you know Washington was a couple of big miscues from making that a close contest. The Giants are in for a long day in Buffalo as Tyrod "T-Mobile" Taylor -- one of the season's biggest surprises -- sprints up and down the field. The Bills won't have LeSean McCoy, but rookie Karlos Williams has looked impressive. Rex Ryan has Bills looking like a legit playoff contender, and I think they win this one by double digits.

The pick: Bills

JETS (2-1) VS. DOLPHINS (1-2), in London, 9:30 a.m.

TV: Ch. 2; Radio: ESPN (98.7)

Jets by 1 1/2; O/U: 42

London calling, and it's a clash of two AFC East teams trying to bounce back. For the Jets, it's simple: They fell in too big of a hole after allowing a punt-return TD and Brandon Marshall's "worst play in NFL history" set up another score. For the Dolphins, things are worse. What I thought was a playoff team has been harder to figure out than Season 2 of "True Detective." Miami lost to the Jaguars, then was a no-show last week in its home opener against the Bills. Now they're going to be pumped up to play in London? I don't see it. Chris Ivory has a big day against a defense that is allowing 145 rushing yards per game.

The pick: Jets


Eagles by 3; O/U: 44

This is the toughest game of the week to call because both teams are so enigmatic. The Redskins showed in the first two weeks that they're a tough out at home. Despite winning last week, the Eagles' offense wasn't inspiring, and I think the Redskins' defense controls this game. Kirk Cousins (0-5) gets his first win against the NFC East.

The pick: Redskins

PANTHERS (3-0) AT BUCS (1-2)

Panthers by 3; O/U: 39 1/2

Tampa Bay returns home, which should be a good thing, right? Maybe not: Lovie Smith has yet to win there as Bucs coach (0-9). Cam Newton may not be old enough to get certain calls, but he's good enough to beat the Bucs.

The pick: Panthers


Falcons by 6 1/2; O/U: 46 1/2

The 9-0 Falcons? They have one of the most favorible stretches of games I think I've ever seen: vs. Houston, vs. Washington, at New Orleans, at Tennessee, vs. Tampa Bay, at San Francisco. The Falcons won't need to create any fake noise for this one as they win big.

The pick: Falcons

JAGUARS (1-2) AT COLTS (1-2)

Colts by 9; O/U: 48

Recent history suggests Andrew Luck (17-2 straight up vs. AFC South) and Colts cover spread, but the eye test (see: Titans scoring 27 unanswered last week) says they're not good enough to be a near double-digit favorite.

The pick: Jaguars


Bengals by 4; O/U: 45

The Bengals have been one of the surest bets thus far. One of seven undefeated teams in the NFL, they're also 3-0 against the spread (ATS). Andy Dalton, who is 22-10-1 straight up at home, has another big game against a Chiefs team playing back-to-back road games on a short week.

The pick: Bengals

RAIDERS (2-1) AT BEARS (0-3)

Raiders by 3; O/U: 44 1/2

The Bears punted on every possession last week! How Raiders-esque of them. But the 2015 Raiders are crushing stereotypes. After winning back-to-back games for the first time since 2012, they're a favorite on the road. The Bears are a mess and Oakland has too many offensive weapons.

The pick: Raiders


Broncos by 6 1/2; O/U: 43

TV: Ch. 5, 4:25 p.m.

Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

Denver's defense is going to dominate this game. It's allowing NFL lows in yards per game (259) and passing yards (176). The Vikings' offense averages 150 yards passing, the fewest in the NFL. DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller will make it a long day for Teddy Bridgewater.

The pick: Broncos


Chargers by 7 1/2; O/U: 44 1/2

TV: Ch. 2, 4:05 p.m.

San Diego returns home after back-to-back road losses, and you've got to think it will take its anger out on Cleveland. Philip Rivers enjoys playing in sunny San Diego. He's 54-23 straight up at home and 38-37 on the road for his career.

The pick: Chargers


Cardinals by 7; O/U: 421/2

If the Rams lost by 14 at Washington, how can they compete against one of the best home teams? Arizona is 15-3 straight up in desert under Bruce Arians.

The pick: Cardinals

PACKERS (3-0) AT 49ERS (1-2)

Packers by 8; O/U: 48 1/2

If the locker room at Levi's Stadium isn't a good fit for Aaron Rodgers, he should let someone know. It's a safe bet the Pack will be back there for Super Bowl 50. In the '90s, with Brett Favre and Steve Young, this game would've been can't-miss. In 2015, with Rodgers (10 TDs, 0 INTs) opposing Colin Kaepernick (2 TDs, 4 INTs), it's a mismatch.

The pick: Packers

COWBOYS (2-1) AT SAINTS (0-3), 8:30 p.m.

TV: Ch. 4

Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

Saints by 4 1/2; O/U: 46 1/2

This line opened at Saints -7 and quickly dropped. The Saints are no longer a dominant home team. I like Dallas' O-line and three-headed rushing attack to wear down New Orleans. I'm setting the over/under on shots of Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan yelling from the sideline at 47.

The pick: Cowboys

LIONS (0-3) AT SEAHAWKS (1-2), Monday night, 8:30 p.m.


Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

Seahawks by 10; O/U: 43

Quick, who "caught" the infamous "Fail Mary" play for Seattle on Monday Night Football? It was Golden Tate, now with Detroit. I think he has a big game against his former team as the Lions show some courage and . . . cover. Too many points to lay against a desperate team trying to avoid 0-4.

The pick: Lions

Manniello is 23-24-1 on the season, 3-0 in best bets.

More staff picks

KIMBERLEY A. MARTIN (26-21-1, 1-2 best bets): Jets, Colts, Falcons, Panthers, Bills, Raiders, Eagles, Bengals, Chargers, Packers, Broncos, Cardinals, Saints, Seahawks.

TOM ROCK (25-22-1, 3-0): Dolphins, Colts, Falcons, Panthers, Giants, Raiders, Eagles, Chiefs, Chargers, Packers, Broncos, Rams, Cowboys, Lions.

BOB GLAUBER (25-22-1, 1-2): Jets, Colts, Falcons, Panthers, Giants, Raiders, Redskins, Chiefs, Chargers, Packers, Vikings, Cardinals, Cowboys, Seahawks.

New York Sports