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NFL Week 6 picks: KC beats Buffalo, Dallas wins without Dak; Miami a lock to rout Jets (0-5 ATS), Giants earn first win

Patrick Mahomes of Kansas City looks to pass

Patrick Mahomes of Kansas City looks to pass against the Raiders during the second quarter at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday in Kansas City, Mo. Credit: Getty Images/Jamie Squire

Give the NFL credit: The league is doing whatever it takes to make sure the season goes on. Did you see that schedule reshuffling release it sent out last week? I got a headache just looking at it. Those poor Chargers. You think they’d rather play the Jets at home this week than be on an unplanned bye?

Favorites went 5-9 against the spread (ATS) last week and are 36-37-2. This looks as if it will be a big week for favorites. Home teams went 9-5 straight up and 6-8 ATS, bringing their totals to 40-36-1 and 34-41-2 ATS.

My five most confident picks are Minnesota (if it plays), Miami, Dallas, Pittsburgh and Green Bay. A couple of games to avoid: Washington-Giants and Cincinnati-Indianapolis.

GAME OF THE WEEK

KANSAS CITY (4-1) AT BUFFALO (4-1)

TV: Ch. 5, NFL, Monday, 5 p.m.

Kansas City by 3.5; O/U: 57.5

This was shaping up to be a 5-0 vs. 5-0 Thursday night battle. Now it’s 4-1 vs. 4-1 on Monday night. As is often the case in the NFL, things rarely go as planned. Both teams are off bad losses, as Kansas City gave up 40 points at home to Las Vegas and Buffalo allowed Tennessee to waltz to 42 points. Patrick Mahomes has lost back-to-back games only twice, and honestly, that seems like a lot for him. If it happens again, it wouldn’t shock me because Buffalo is a complete team and will play with an extra edge after Tuesday’s lopsided defeat. But Mahomes is 4-1 on MNF, including a convincing win at Baltimore this year. I haven’t picked a Kansas City game right yet (0-2 when backing them, 0-3 when picking against them), but I’ll play the odds that they’ll be super focused after a bad loss.

The pick: Kansas City

THE LOCALS

WASHINGTON (1-4) AT GIANTS (0-5)

TV: Ch. 5, 1 p.m.

Giants by 2.5; O/U: 43

Lay points with the winless Giants or take the small number with Washington, which has lost four in a row by 15, 14, 14 and 20? Insert Larry David undecided GIF. There’s no enthusiasm to curb for this matchup, but we pick every game, even the ones that are pre-tty, pre-tty, pre-tty bad. The main reason I'll back the Giants: They seemed angry after last week's last-second loss at Dallas. Being that close could be the motivation they need to get Joe Judge his first victory.

The pick: Giants

LOCK OF THE WEEK

JETS (0-5) AT MIAMI (2-3)

TV: Ch. 2, 4:05 p.m.

Miami by 9.5; O/U: 47

Adam Gase's old team being favored by this many points against Adam Gase's new team tells you all you need to know about the current state of the Jets. The only thing they lead the NFL in is non-covers, as they're the lone 0-5 ATS team. This game got moved up because of all the scheduling reshuffling, but it doesn't matter who the Jets play at this point. Miami just scored 43 points at San Francisco, so Ryan Fitzpatrick should have a field day vs. his old team. Keep picking against the Jets until they give you a reason not to.

The pick: Miami

1 p.m. Games

CLEVELAND (4-1) AT PITTSBURGH (4-0)

Pittsburgh by 3.5; O/U: 51

This is an early-season AFC North statement game. Can Cleveland, winners of four straight, hang with unbeaten Pittsburgh? The Browns lost to Baltimore, 38-6, but that was Week 1 and they look like a different team. Still, Baker Mayfield is a little banged up and Ben Roethlisberger is 23-2-1 all-time against the Browns. Cleveland hasn’t won at Pittsburgh since 2003. It won't happen this year, either, as the Steelers have too many playmakers, including breakout rookie receiver Chase Claypool.

The pick: Pittsburgh

BALTIMORE (4-1) AT PHILADELPHIA (1-3-1)

Baltimore by 7.5; O/U: 47.5

This is a lot of points to lay on the road, but home field doesn't mean much in 2020. Baltimore's aggressive defense should be a problem for Carson Wentz, who has thrown nine interceptions and been sacked 19 times this season.

The pick: Baltimore

DENVER (1-3) AT NEW ENGLAND (2-2)

New England by 9.5; O/U: 45

This game was pushed back a week, but as the Titans showed Tuesday night, practice is overrated. Expect New England to be ready to go, especially if Cam Newton can play.

The pick: New England

HOUSTON (1-4) AT TENNESSEE (4-0)

Tennessee by 3; O/U: 53

The Titans' first three wins were by 1, 2 and 3 points. They were 0-3 ATS. Then, limited to just a couple practices in two-plus weeks, they blitzed Buffalo, 42-16, Tuesday night. To paraphrase a famous line by a New York baseball broadcaster, "That's football, Suzyn." There could be a letdown factor here on a short week, so take Deshaun Watson as Houston builds off its first win.

The pick: Houston

CINCINNATI (1-3-1) AT INDIANAPOLIS (3-2)

Indianapolis by 8; O/U: 46.5

The Colts take care of business at home against inferior opponents (28-11 and 36-7 wins over the Vikings and Jets). Joe Burrow could muster only three points at Baltimore last week and will struggle again.

The pick: Indianapolis

ATLANTA (0-5) AT MINNESOTA (1-4)

Minnesota by 4; O/U: 54

Minnesota, a yard away from handing Seattle its first loss Sunday night, was going to be my lock of the week but with Atlanta's positive COVID-19 tests, there's always uncertainty the game could be postponed. Being 1-4 feels a world different than 2-3, but at least it's not 0-5. Atlanta just canned Dan Quinn, but I don't expect a fired-up performance from a team that just has too many glaring holes. Look for an angry Vikings team to run and pass all over an overmatched Falcons defense.

Note to readers: If this game is postponed, or there's significant line movement because a star player tests positive, we will re-pick the game with the updated point spread.

The pick: Minnesota

CHICAGO (4-1) AT CAROLINA (3-2)

Carolina by 1.5; O/U: 44.5

Carolina has won three in a row, but let's see how it plays as a favorite for the first time. Chicago has had extra time to prepare after its one-point won over Tampa Bay on TNF.

The pick: Chicago

DETROIT (1-3) AT JACKSONVILLE (1-4)

Detroit by 3; O/U: 54.5

I'm 0-5 picking Jaguars games, so what do I know? Jacksonville has lost four in a row, allowing 33, 31, 33 and 30 points. If Detroit can't put up points off its bye, it could be bye-bye for Matt Patricia.

The pick: Detroit

4. p.m. GAMES

GREEN BAY (4-0) AT TAMPA BAY (3-2)

TV: Ch. 5

Green Bay by 1; O/U: 55.5?

Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay (4-0 ATS) have put up 43, 42, 37 and 30 points and are rested off a bye. Tom Brady and Tampa Bay are off a mini-bye after a loss on TNF. This should be a fun one with plenty of points. Yes, the Bucs’ defense is the best one Rodgers has faced, but he’s likely getting Davante Adams back and I look at the Packers as the anti-Jets: Keep backing them until they give you a reason not to.

The pick: Green Bay

SUNDAY NIGHT

L.A. RAMS (4-1) AT SAN FRANCISCO (2-3)

TV: Ch. 4

Los Angeles by 3.5; O/U: 51.5

It's tempting to take the defending NFC champs here in a rebound spot after they were embarrassed, 43-17, at home by the Dolphins. But the 49ers (0-3 at home) are still a little banged up, and Sean McVay should design a plan to attack a beat-up 49ers secondary. Jared Goff wears No. 16 to honor Joe Montana, and he could very well look like him against the 49ers.

The pick: Los Angeles

MONDAY NIGHT

ARIZONA (3-2) AT DALLAS (2-3)

TV: ESPN

Arizona by 1.5; O/U: 55

No Dak Prescott doesn’t mean the Cowboys should be an automatic fade. Don’t forget: Andy Dalton is one of the best backup quarterbacks, and probably better than some starters. He will be able to put up points with all of Dallas’ offensive weapons. Only problem is the Cowboys’ defense can’t stop anyone, so Kyler Murray should have a big night. Still, the Cowboys will be motivated to win for Prescott in a prime-time, national TV spot.

The pick: Dallas

STAFF STANDINGS AND PICKS

(Best bets in bold)

JOE MANNIELLO

34-41-2 overall, 2-3 best bets

Last week: 7-7

Giants Miami Pittsburgh Baltimore New England

Houston Indianapolis Minnesota Chicago Detroit

Green Bay L.A. Rams Kansas City Dallas

BOB GLAUBER

38-37-2, 3-2

Last week: 5-9

Giants Miami Pittsburgh Philadelphia New England

Tennessee Indianapolis Minnesota Chicago Jacksonville

Green Bay San Francisco Kansas City Dallas

TOM ROCK

41-34-2, 3-2

Last week: 10-4

Giants Miami Pittsburgh Baltimore New England

Houston Cincinnati Minnesota Carolina Jacksonville

Green Bay L.A. Rams Kansas City Dallas

AL IANNAZZONE

38-37-2, 3-2

Last week: 4-10

Washington Miami Pittsburgh Baltimore Denver

Houston Cincinnati Minnesota Carolina Detroit

Green Bay L.A. Rams Kansas City Dallas

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