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NFL Week 8 picks: Giants, Jets overmatched; Rams rout Packers, Chiefs roll; Colts lock of week

Ryan Kerrigan and the Redskins should have more

Ryan Kerrigan and the Redskins should have more to celebrate when they take on the overmatched Giants in Week 8.  Credit: Getty Images/Joe Robbins

Underdogs finally underachieved, going 6-8 against the spread in Week 7 for their first losing mark of the year. As the season progresses, and it's clear who are the contenders and pretenders, favorites tend to pick up some steam. That should be the case this week with some favorable lines.

Underdogs still lead with a 52-45-6 record.

There are four teams on a bye this week, another early London game and the Giants and Jets are both slated for 1 p.m. starts.

My most confident picks ATS this week are the Colts, Redskins, Vikings, Rams and 49ers. Two tricky games to avoid: Ravens-Panthers and Eagles-Jaguars. Remember, I pick every game so that you don't have to.

REDSKINS (4-2) AT GIANTS (1-6)

TV: Ch. 5, 1 p.m.

Giants by 1; O/U: 42 1/2

The Redskins have overachieved. The Giants have underachieved. One is in first place and the other is in the first overall pick conversation. These rivalry games are always tricky (hence the odd point spread) but it's hard to back the Giants here. They just traded two defensive starters. They're 0-3 straight up and ATS at home and the last two losses were by 15 and 21 points. Washington isn't an explosive offense but veterans Alex Smith and Adrian Peterson have delivered. Washington allows the third-fewest rushing yards per game (87.3), so Saquon Barkley should be contained. Ryan Kerrigan and the Redskins' front seven will make it another long day for Eli Manning as Washington (4-2 ATS) wins a low-scoring game. Call it 20-13.

The pick: Redskins

JETS (3-4) AT BEARS (3-3)

TV: Ch. 2, 1 p.m.

Bears by 7 1/2; O/U: 44 1/2

Sam Darnold has struggled in his last two road starts (0-2), and it shouldn’t get easier against Chicago’s defense. Khalil Mack and that pass rush will give the Jets’ offensive line fits. It's hard to see the banged-up Jets putting up 20 points (they scored 17 and 12 in the last two road games). Chicago has lost two in a row (both to AFC East teams) but New England needed two special-teams touchdowns to beat them last week. Also, the Bears’ three losses are by a combined 11 points. Bears coach Matt Nagy will take advantage of the Jets’ undermanned secondary and put Mitchell Trubisky in a position to succeed with favorable matchups.

The pick: Bears

LONDON GAME

EAGLES (3-4) VS. JAGUARS (3-4)

TV: Ch. 5, 9:30 a.m. 

Eagles by 3; O/U: 42 1/2

This could have been last year’s Super Bowl matchup had Jacksonville not folded in the AFC title game.  Now, both are under .500. It’s the Eagles’ first trip to London, whereas it’s Jacksonville’s home away from home. The Jaguars have played there five times, winning and covering the last three trips. But they’re a mess right now. Blake Bortles is still the starter despite last week's benching, but will he get a quick hook if it's another shaky beginning? The Eagles are better than they’ve shown, and will be angry after blowing a 17-0 fourth-quarter lead at home. Carson Wentz (the Prince Harry lookalike) gets the royal treatment from the crowd after he leads Philly to the win.

The pick: Eagles

1 P.M. GAMES

BROWNS (2-4-1) AT STEELERS (3-2-1)

Steelers by 8; O/U: 49

Hello, good bye! The Steelers' off week was so productive that they moved into first place with losses by the Bengals and Ravens. The Browns played their fourth overtime game of the season. There's a chance the fresher Steelers could win big, but this feels like too many points. Cleveland (5-1-1 ATS) has been in all but one game this season, including a 21-21 tie against the Steelers in Week 1.

The pick: Browns

BUCS (3-3) AT BENGALS (4-3)

Bengals by 4; O/U: 54 1/2

Cincinnati’s Achilles heels have been Pittsburgh and prime time, so now that those two are in the rear-view mirror, it should snap a two-game skid. The Bucs have the offensive playmakers to get into a track meet, though, and their defense responded after switching coordinators. They're worth a shot with the points.

The pick: Bucs

BRONCOS (3-4) AT CHIEFS (6-1)

Chiefs by 10; O/U: 53 1/2

Kansas City is an NFL-best 6-0-1 ATS. The ‘1’ push was from its Monday night game in Denver in Week 4, a 27-23 comeback win. It won’t be that close at Arrowhead. The Chiefs are 3-0 at home with wins by 11, 16 and 35 points. Interestingly, both the Chiefs and Broncos are coming off 45-10 victories last week. The Chiefs defense has played well at home, and Patrick Mahomes and the offense are relentless. K.C. keeps on rolling.

The pick: Chiefs

RAVENS (4-3) AT PANTHERS (4-2)

Ravens by 2; O/U: 44

It feels like every week the Ravens are involved in the toughest matchup to call. This should be down to the wire, but I lean Baltimore because of its top-ranked defense (280.6 yards and 14.4 points per game). Justin Tucker, the NFL's best kicker, earns redemption from last week's missed PAT with a long, late field goal for the win.

The pick: Ravens

SEAHAWKS (3-3) AT LIONS (3-3)

Lions by 2 1/2; O/U: 49 1/2

Detroit is on a 5-0 run ATS since the Monday Night Meltdown against the Jets in Week 1. The Lions beat the Patriots and Packers in their last two home games. They were my original pick for this game, but I'm calling an audible. Seattle has won four of the last five after a bye. And I've learned one too many times that passing up points with Russell Wilson is never wise.

The pick: Seahawks

4 P.M. GAMES

PACKERS (3-2-1) AT RAMS (7-0)

Rams by 9 1/2; O/U: 56 1/2

An Aaron Rodgers-led team has never been this big of an underdog. Don't let that fool you into taking the Packers, though. They are a flawed team, especially on defense. The last time we saw them, they allowed 30 points to the 49ers on MNF before their bye. Rodgers has a 38-39 career road record. He is 4-0 vs. the Rams, but these aren't Jeff Fisher's Rams. Back at home for the first time in 31 days, Jared Goff, Todd Gurley & Co. will pick up where they left off. They've scored 34, 35 and 38 points in their three home games, all covers. Aaron Donald and the Rams defense should get after Rodgers in a statement game for the NFL's best team.

The pick: Rams

LOCK OF THE WEEK

COLTS (2-5) AT RAIDERS (1-5)

Colts by 3; O/U: 50 1/2

If there were advanced metrics that could chart which teams play the hardest for their coach, Frank Reich's Colts would be near the top. Jon Gruden's Raiders? The bottom. Gruden and Oakland took the bye week literally, saying farewell to Amari Cooper (traded to Cowboys) and Marshawn Lynch (placed on injured reserve). The Raiders are now focused on 2019, whereas the Colts - who have never quit in any game this season - will be motivated for their first winning streak of the season after a 37-5 win over the Bills last week. Andrew Luck threw for four TDs, and Marlon Mack had 126 rushing yards and two total TDs against a solid Bills defense. The Raiders already let one Mack get away. Make it two as the Colt breaks free and runs wild.

The pick: Colts

49ERS (1-6) AT CARDINALS (1-6)

Pick 'em; O/U: 42 1/2

If you plan on betting money on a battle of two 1-6 teams, please don’t. Arizona could have a spark after firing its offensive coordinator, and it did win at San Francisco in Week 5. But the 49ers outgained the Cards by 200-plus yards and had 23 more first downs in that game, losing because of five turnovers. The 49ers are the better team.

The pick: 49ers

SUNDAY NIGHT

SAINTS (5-1) AT VIKINGS (4-2-1)

Vikings by 1; O/U: 51 1/2

TV: Ch. 4, 8:20 p.m.

Both teams are hot (Saints have won five in a row, the Vikings three), so this should be competitive the whole way. A rematch of last season’s “Minny Miracle” NFC divisional-round playoff game, the only difference is the Vikings added Kirk Cousins. He will have a big night as Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs have the advantage against the Saints secondary.

The pick: Vikings

MONDAY NIGHT

PATRIOTS (5-2) AT BILLS (2-5)

Patriots by 13 1/2; O/U: 44

TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m.

If the Patriots beat the Colts by 14 and the Colts beat the Bills by 32, that means the Pats should beat the Bills by 46, right? No, that kind of math doesn’t fly in the NFL. These numbers do, though: Tom Brady is 28-3 all-time against Buffalo. More math: The Bills have been held to 31 total points in their last four games, seven fewer than the Pats scored last week alone. It all adds up to the Pats winning big.

The pick: Patriots

STAFF STANDINGS AND PICKS

(best bets are in bold)

JOE MANNIELLO

46-55-6 overall, 4-3 best bets

Last week: 7-7

Redskins Bears Eagles Browns

Bucs Chiefs Ravens Seahawks

Rams Colts 49ers Vikings Patriots

BOB GLAUBER

43-58-6, 2-5

Last week: 5-9

Giants Bears Eagles Steelers

Bengals Chiefs Panthers Seahawks

Rams Colts Cardinals Vikings Patriots

TOM ROCK

50-51-6, 4-3

Last week: 10-4

Giants Bears Eagles Browns

Bengals Chiefs Panthers Lions

Rams Raiders 49ers Saints Patriots

AL IANNAZZONE

50-51-6, 5-2

Last week: 6-8

Redskins Bears Eagles Browns

Bengals Chiefs Panthers Lions

Packers Raiders Cardinals Saints Patriots

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