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Nassau Girls Hoops Bracketology

North Shore's Amanda Johansen splits between Brianna Wilson

North Shore's Amanda Johansen splits between Brianna Wilson and Cassie Paskins to sink the two. (Jan. 31, 2012) Credit: Patrick E. McCarthy

The battle for playoff positions is reaching its conclusion with only two or three regular season games left to play. Teams have less than a week until the conclusion of the regular season and the Nassau brackets will be announced next Tuesday night. Below are projected brackets based on games played through Monday Feb. 6, based off previous year’s brackets as well as conversations with those directly and indirectly involved in the seeding process. There are still teams who can play themselves into and out of the postseason, this is simply one man’s opinion as to how the brackets would be assembled today.

Class AA:

There are two significant issues in Nassau Class AA: the No. 1 seed and the Conference III title. Baldwin and Massapequa are vying for the top seed and the defending Long Island champion Bruins have an edge given their 10 straight wins and undefeated record in the county. Conference AA-III could come down to Friday’s game between Mepham and Elmont, which may have a domino effect on all of the first round seeds.

Please note: a big win indicates a win against an opponent likely to finish high in the league standings and a bad loss indicates a defeat to an opponent who is significantly lower in the standings.

Who’s No. 1?

Baldwin and Massapequa are battling it out for the No. 1 overall seed in the Class AA playoffs. The Bruins have won 10 games in a row, suffering only 1 loss to North Babylon in non-league. Massapequa lost in its season opener to Sacred Heart and last week to Freeport, the latter likely costing the Chiefs the top seed since it occurred in league. The difference between No. 1 and No. 2 is negligible as long as conference foes are not on the same side of the bracket (i.e. Baldwin and MacArthur being No. 1 and No. 4) since the semifinals and finals are on a neutral floor.

Baldwin (13-1, 11-0 Conference AA-II)

PPG/PPGA: 55.5/34.5

Streak: 10 wins

Last 5 games: 5-0

vs playoff teams: 8-1* Includes win over Banneker of PSAL

Biggest win(s): at MacArthur 39-30 (Feb. 3), vs. MacArthur 52-42 (Jan. 6), vs. Lynbrook 58-39 (Dec. 12)

Worst loss(es): vs. North Babylon 35-34 (Dec. 28)

Massapequa (13-2, 9-1 Conference AA-I)

PPG/PPGA: 52.2/35.7

Streak: 1 win

Last 5 games: 4-1

vs playoff teams: 6-2* Does not include games from KSA tournament

Biggest win(s): vs. Kellenberg 51-48 (Dec. 30)

Worst loss(es): vs. Freeport 53-46 (Jan. 31)

Conference AA-III battle:

Elmont, Mepham and Herricks are vying for the Conference AA-III title and Elmont and Mepham play on Friday in a game which could decide the conference and potentially alter the landscape of all of the playoff seeds. As of today Elmont is the leader with a 2-1 record against the other two teams, Herricks is 2-2 and Mepham is 1-2. Elmont has 10 consecutive wins after starting the season with four straight losses and Herricks has a win over likely Conference A-II champion Sewanhaka.
It is unlikely for all three teams to get home playoff games in the first round but based off games played as of Monday they would all be in position to do so given a three-way tie in the standings. This will change later in the week.

Elmont (10-4, 9-2)

vs Mepham: 1-0

vs Herricks: 1-1

PPG/PPGA: 45.8/37.9

Streak: 10 wins

Last 5 games: 5-0

vs playoff teams: 4-3

Biggest win(s): at Herricks 32-27 (Jan. 20), at Mepham 48-32 (Jan. 12)

Worst loss(es): at Smithtown West 60-55 (Dec. 29), at Bellmore JFK 41-27 (Dec. 20)

Herricks (12-2, 9-2)

vs Mepham: 1-1

vs Elmont: 1-1

PPG/PPGA: 44.9/29.4

Streak: 1 loss

Last 5 games: 3-2

vs playoff teams: 5-2

Biggest win(s): at Mepham 38-34 OT (Jan. 6), vs Sewanhaka 52-36 (Dec. 27), at Elmont 46-35 (Dec. 16)

Worst loss(es): n/a

Mepham (11-3, 9-2)

vs Elmont: 0-1

vs Herricks: 1-1

PPG/PPGA: 46.9/37.4

Streak: 5 wins

Last 5 games: 5-0

vs playoff teams: 4-2* Does not include Lower Merion game

Biggest win(s): at Herricks 50-46 (Feb. 3)

Worst loss(es): n/a

Projected Class AA bracket through games on 2/6:

8 Mepham

vs--------------------1 Baldwin

9 Farmingdale

5 Freeport

vs--------------------4 Uniondale

12 Long Beach

6 Elmont

vs--------------------3 MacArthur

11 Hicksville

7 Herricks

vs--------------------2 Massapequa

10 Valley Stream Central

Class A:

The main issue at hand in Class A is who will be the No. 2 seed. North Shore is a runaway favorite to be the No. 1 seed, having clinched the Conference A-IV title and undefeated in the county thus far. Defending Long Island champion Garden City, Lynbrook and Sewanhaka are vying for the No. 2 seed. While Wantagh may earn a share of the Conference A-I crown with Garden City, the Warriors have lost to Lynbrook and Sewanhaka and split with the Trojans, with Garden City earning the most recent win, so Wantagh’s candidacy for the No. 2 seed is less likely than the other three teams.

The rest of the drama in Class A lies in seeds 8 through 16 as teams like Plainedge, Hewlett, Roslyn and West Hempstead are still battling for their playoff lives and others like Great Neck North, Floral Park and Valley Stream North jockey for positions in a competitive field.

Who’s No. 2?

Garden City (13-2, 7-1 Conference A-I)

PPG/PPGA: 52.1/33.5

Streak: 7 wins

Last 5 games: 5-0

vs playoff teams: 5-2 (4-2 in Class A)

Biggest win(s): at Wantagh 43-29 (Jan. 27)

Worst loss(es): at Manhasset 51-49 (Dec. 17)

Lynbrook (11-3, 9-1 Conference A-III)

PPG/PPGA: 52.4/37.4

Streak: 6 wins

Last 5 games: 5-0

vs playoff teams: 4-3 (4-2 in Class A)

Biggest win(s): vs. Floral Park 49-44 (Feb. 3), at Wantagh 42-28 (Dec. 8)

Worst loss(es): at Floral Park 38-37 (Jan. 6)

Sewanhaka (13-2, 8-0 Conference A-II)

PPG/PPGA: 58.4/47.2

Streak: 9 wins

Last 5 games: 5-0

vs playoff teams: 8-2 (7-1 in Class A)

Biggest win(s): vs. Floral Park 55-51 (Dec. 14), at Wantagh 47-38 (Dec. 6)

Worst loss(es): at Herricks 52-36 (Dec. 27)

Projected Class A bracket through games on 2/6:

1 North Shore


16 Plainedge

8 Bethpage


9 Great Neck North

5 Wantagh


12 Mineola

4 Sewanhaka


13 South Side

6 Floral Park


11 Valley Stream North

3 Garden City


14 Manhasset

7 Island Trees


10 Division

2 Lynbrook


15 New Hyde Park

Projected Class B bracket through games on 2/6:

1 Cold Spring Harbor


4 Malverne/Wheatley

2 Carle Place


3 Locust Valley

Projected Class C bracket through games on 2/6:

1 Friends Academy


2 East Rockaway


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