If you look at the stats alone, A's righthander Trevor Cahill had a great season last year. He went 18-8 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Sounds like a fantasy ace. He will be drafted with the expectations to come close to those stats, but can he do it?
For the price you need to pay to attain him I just don't see it. Cahill had a 5.40 K/9 and 2.88 BB/9. Cahill struggled in his rookie season with a 4.63 ERA.
The strikeouts could increase, though based on history. Cahill, 22, showed in the minor leagues he has the skills to succeed at the major league level. The K/9 of 5.40 was very low, but was an improvement from 4.53 the year before. There is a good chance that rate can improve further since Cahill did have a 9.9 K/9 in the minors.
Cahill has good control and a groundball rate of 56 percent last season. There are a lot of good qualities for success but unless his K/9 increases, it will be difficult to match last season's stats.
Cahill had luck on his side last season with a very low .238 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), a high strand rate of 76.5 percent and a Fielding Independent Pitching ERA of 4.19. All signs point to some regression and he will be overvalued unless his K/9 sees a significant jump.
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