Before we get to our predictions for UFC 115 on Friday, let's talk betting odds. More specifically, let's talk value bets. Anyone can pick a favorite and win, but winning $5 on a $10 bet isn't worth anyone's time.
According to Bodog.com, Martin Kampmann (+205) is a big underdog against Paulo Thiago (-265) this Saturday. That means, if you bet $100 on Kampmann to win, you'll earn yourself a sweet $205. Strong value right there.
But, in order to win $100 on Thiago, you'd need to fork over $265 at the betting windows in Las Vegas. That's some weak sauce right there.
Thiago is a rising welterweight, but Kampmann (16-3, 7-2 UFC) can definitely win this fight. He has good power and a strong ground and submission game.
Kampmann is coming off a submission win in January over Jacob Volkmann, and has won three of his last four fights. His two losses in the UFC were to Paul Daley and Nate Marquardt.
Thiago (13-1, 3-1) opened a lot of eyes at UFC 109 in February when he choked out Mike Swick.
If you want a good value for your investment, start with Kampmann.