Although fantasy owners spend a lot of time analyzing the first few rounds as they prepare for drafts, savvy owners know the last few rounds is where you can win your draft. With several mock drafts already, I am finding a lot of good value in the later rounds. It’s still early and I expect some of these players to rise as we get closer to real drafts.
One player going real late is Aaron Harang. The Reds righthander had started to emerge as one of the better fantasy pitchers, but went 6-17 in 2008 and 6-14 last season. That will cause many owners to completely ignore Harang.
But as we have discussed many times on here, you can’t look at wins. A deeper look at Harang shows promise. Harang has shown some regression in some categories and there is some concern that he was overworked from 2005-07 when he threw 211 2/3 innings, 234 1/3 innings and 231 2/3 innings. He hasn’t reached 200 innings the last two years.
K/9 BB/9 HR/9 WHIP BABIP Strand rate FIP ERA
2005 6.93 2.17 0.94 1.27 .310 74.6 3.67 3.83
2006 8.30 2.15 1.08 1.27 .325 73.8 3.68 3.76
2007 8.47 2.02 1.09 1.14 .298 74.0 3.71 3.73
2008 7.47 2.44 1.71 1.38 .317 73.6 4.79 4.78
2009 7.87 2.38 1.33 1.41 .338 75.7 4.14 4.21
A lot of things went wrong for Harang the last two seasons and part of that was due to injuries and bad luck. The home run ball has also hurt him. His home run/fly ball rate was 14% in 2008 and 12 % in 2009. His skills have declined a little bit, but he’s not done.
His current average draft position is 293 on mockdraftcentral.com. That means he isn’t even being drafted in many 12-team, 23-round drafts. I would definitely take a chance on Harang in the final few rounds. There isn’t much risk involved and if he struggles early, you can always cut him. Harang will be undervalued in drafts and there’s nothing to lose taking him in the final rounds.
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