Every time David Aardsma gets selected in a draft, I pump my fist. Aardsma had 38 saves for the Mariners last season, but there are a lot of disturbing stats that make me stay away from him. First is his average draft position, which is currently 150 at mockdraftcentral.com. That is insane. Aardsma has had one good season in the majors and has a history of control problems. Even last season, he had a 4.3 BB/9. Chad Qualls goes 61 picks later and I'd take Qualls every time.
Aardsma is an extreme fly ball pitcher with a fly ball percentage of 54 percent last season. He was fortuante to allow just four home runs in 71 1/3 innings for a lucky 4.2 percent HR/FB ratio. People are looking at the saves, a 2.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and a 10.1 K/9. Control, lots of fly balls, a high strand rate and a .271 BABIP suggest regression is coming.
Every year we see a lot of changes at the closer position. It will happen again and I think Aardsma could lose the job. Brandon League could become the closer and he has a much better profile to be a successful closer. Target League in deeper mixed leagues and AL-only leagues or at least keep in mind for an early waiver wire pickup.
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