Braves righthander Jair Jurrjens backed up a solid 2008 rookie season with a better season in his second year with the Braves. Jurrjens went 14-10 with a 2.60 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and a 152/75 K/BB ratio in 215 innings. He went 13-10 with a 3.68 ERA in 2008. So should we expect another jump in 2010?
I don't see it. I expect regression. I don't think Jurrjens will be a bad fantasy pitcher in 2010, but he will be overvalued because of last season's statistics. His 6.36 K/9 isn't what you want from one of your top pitchers. A 3.14 BB/9 isn't top notch either. His strand rate of 79.4 percent last season was very lucky and that likely won't repeat. That indicates his ERA should rise as does his 3.68 FIP from last season.
Jurrjens doesn't allow a lot of homers, but his fly ball rate went from 26.5 percent to 39.1 percent and his ground ball rate dipped from 51.5 percent to 42.9 percent. His BABIP was .273 last season and was .311 in 2008. Even if it creeps up towards the .300 mark this season, coupled with his walk rate, mediocre strikeout rate and increase in the fly ball rate, Jurrjens will see regression.
In a lot of leagues, he will be drafted based on last season's stats. He currently has an average draft position of 125 on mockdraftcentral.com. He is going ahead of Wandy Rodriguez, Jered Weaver, Scott Baker and Brett Anderson and I would take all of those pitchers before Jurrjens.
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