If you look too much at ERA, you will immediately dismiss Brandon Morrow. The Blue Jays righthander has a great arm and unless you watch him pitch and break down the statistics in depth, you won’t appreciate the value Morrow presents.
Anyone who has owned Morrow the last few years has experienced the highs and lows. Many owners will pass on Morrow. One thing you can count on is a lot of strikeouts considering he has been one of the best in the majors the last two seasons.
Morrow had a 10.95 K/9 in 2010 and 10.19 last season. The biggest change for Morrow is the improved control. Morrow struggled with it in the minors and had a 5.68 BB/9 over 69 1/3 innings in 2009 followed by a 4.06 and 3.46 the next two seasons. What might scare people away is the 4.49 ERA in 2010 and 4.72 ERA last season.
There are still signs of a breakout coming. The Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA shows Morrow has suffered from poor luck the last two seasons since he had a 3.16 FIP in 2010 and 3.64 last season.
Morrow has terrific stuff and is difficult to hit as he allowed a .233 batting average against last season. Since his numbers haven’t been great the last two seasons, Morrow will be undervalued. If you dig deeper into the stats, there is a possible breakout coming.
For 2012 draft prep, click on the 2012 draft prep tag below.