THIS NEW HOUSE
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The home of the future will be high-tech, like Al
Notarnicola's renovated split level in Huntington. Notarnicola's house features
wireless home automation, so he can operate indoor and outdoor lights, his
entry door locks and the thermostats for his furnace and air conditioner as
easily as he changes channels on his plasma TV.
The home of the future also will be a lot like today's modest
2,400-square-foot, three-bedroom structure, only reshaped to eliminate showy
formal space - those large, seldom-used dining areas and living rooms - in
favor of multipurpose "great rooms."
According to "The Home of the Future" study - polls of architects,
designers and building industry manufacturers conducted by the National
Association of Home Builders' economics group - new homes in the near future,
as early as 2015, will offer buyers a blend of technological advancements and
flexible living space.
The study also shows that the next generation of new-home buyers prefers
amenities - like two master-bedroom suites, large bathrooms with walk-in
showers and separate tubs, custom-built professional kitchens, and kitchenettes
in master bedrooms - over unused space.
Translation: The demand for those larger, sprawling McMansions is over.
Homes stop growing
"The average home size has been going up for the last 35 years," Gopal
Ahluwalia, NAHB vice president of research, told visitors at the International
Builders' Show last month in Orlando, Fla., where the results of the study were
released. "But home size is not going to rise anymore. Size is flattening out."
But because of rising housing costs, younger home buyers will be OK with
smaller homes, said Ahluwalia. That's a distinct change for Americans. In the
1950s, the average American home was about 1,000 square feet with one bathroom.
It grew to about 1,500 square feet in 1970 to today's average of about 2,400
square feet.
On Long Island, contractors say results of the NAHB study, for the most
part, should ring true. But they're finding the projections slightly off when
it comes to home automation. Take Notarnicola, for example. A self-confessed
"techno-geek," he's a rarity, a Long Island homeowner willing to spend nearly
$50,000 to equip his renovated split-level - expanded from 4,000 square feet to
6,000 square feet - with home automation technology.
"I like all the electronics stuff," says Notarnicola, 37, whose Huntington
company, Gold Medal Gymnastics, builds gymnastics centers and clubs. "So I did
some research and found this technology is much more affordable than a few
years ago." Less than two years ago, the same system would have cost him nearly
$200,000, he says.
With home automation, Notarnicola, at the touch of a button, can turn on
his landscape lights or dial up the thermostat on his heating system. At night,
before he goes to bed, he can program his security system, which features four
video cameras, and lock all the deadbolts on his entry doors. And if he wants
to check a system while at work, he can log on to the Internet and view
settings from his computer.
Notarnicola says home security is an issue, but the system, manufactured by
Insteon and distributed by SmartLabs, an Irvine, Calif.- based home
electronics specialty firm, is much more. It combines radio frequency and the
home's electronics system so virtually any device can be operated at the push
of a button.
LI lags a little
"In California and parts of the Southwest, new home builders are offering
this technology as an upgrade, a common option," says Chris Wyllie, owner of
S.E.A.L. Solutions of Sound Beach, whose company installed Notarnicola's
system. "Around here, we're behind a little bit." SmartLabs offers businesses
and builders a home-automation bundle - lighting, security and entertainment -
through Best Buy stores (bestbuyforbusiness .com).
In its most recent study, the Consumer Electronics Association in
Arlington, Va., found that in 2000 about 7.5 million American homes were
equipped with a degree of computer networking that automates security,
entertainment, and lighting and mechanical systems. That's up from 2 million
homes in 1995, according to the trade group.
On Long Island, it's probably less than 1 percent, say home automation
contractors such as Wyllie. But there's room to grow. The Long Island homeowner
sees the technology as a lighting upgrade or an option to be used with home
theaters or multimedia rooms. By exchanging electric receptacles and switches
for Insteon modules, lights and devices in different rooms can be controlled at
one switch or with one keypad.
In addition to media rooms, Andy Pollack, a Rockland County installer, says
home automation for kitchens is heating up, too. "I just installed an Insteon
lighting package in a huge kitchen renovation," says Pollack, owner of R.E.C.
Electric in Spring Valley. "For about $2,000, the homeowner now can control all
the under-the-counter lights, recessed lighting and display lighting at one
switch," he says. Before the installation, eight different switches were needed
to control kitchen lighting.
But new-home builders likely will offer reshaped space before complete home
automation packages, experts say. Older home buyers will readily accept doing
without a formal living room, as long as that space has been reallocated as a
parlor or library, they say. At the Orlando show last month, Victor Irizarry,
owner of Whitford Homes in Ronkonkoma and president of the Long Island Builders
Institute, says he was hoping to offer some amenities - such as master-bedroom
kitchenettes and outdoor porches - in upcoming models.
That the current generation is shying away from high-tech is
understandable, says Ken Fairbanks, vice president of development for
SmartLabs. But as costs come down - a wireless lighting package for the average
Long Island home can run about $1,000 in equipment - and the next generation,
those raised on iPods, Blackberrys and video games, enters the market, expect
home automation to be embraced. Much like granite countertops.
"It's not too far-fetched," says Fairbanks, "for a future homeowner to have
an alarm clock that wakes you up and at the same time turns on the shower."
TRENDSETTER
Since 1984, glimpses of futuristic trends have been available to new-home
builders and buyers, courtesy of "The New American Home." This showcase home is
sponsored by the National Association of Home Builders and is built annually
in conjunction with the International Builders' Show. The home highlights a
multitude of products and design features, all under one roof.
Although its display can be over the top - this year's home in Orlando is
three levels, 5,800 square feet and runs $5.3 million - the idea is that any
builder can take a piece of the showcase home and reproduce it in his own
market.
But what designers and architects think will be a hit often is a surprise,
says Bill Nolan, vice president of the Affordable Housing Institute in Orlando.
"In 1984, in the first home we built in Houston, the architect put bleachers
in the living room," recalls Nolan, "because it was a small home, and they
eliminated a need for furniture.
"It's safe to say, I haven't seen bleacher seating replicated since."
Often products that don't make a mark the first time seem to pop up several
years later. For example, in the early 1990s, steel studs were supposed to
take over the framing market. Today, with a wood shortage and more thorough
training for framers, more builders are using steel studs, says Tucker Bernard,
senior director of the NAHB's National Council of the Housing Industry.
Bernard has been involved in the showcase homes for more than a decade. He
knows some applications, like outdoor showers - included in the past three New
American Homes - have been slow to catch on. He also doubts the comfort of the
high-end, multi-nozzle showers featured in master bath suites (and shown in the
Trends feature of this magazine).
"I call them 'car-wash' showers, because of all the overhead nozzles," he
says. "They're expensive to put in, and I can't see how they're comfortable
with that much water hitting you all the time.
"There are a lot of sensitive parts on a body."
- GARY DYMSKI
WHAT BUYERS EXPECT
The Home of the Future poll was conducted last year, and those surveyed were
asked to provide a detailed view of what buyers can expect to find in the new,
single-family homes in 2015. Two profiles were created, one for the average
home (about 2,400 square feet) and another for the upscale home (4,000 square
feet or more).
AVERAGE HOME:
Two-story home with 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 bathrooms and 3 or 4 bedrooms
One-story entry foyer
One-story family room (no loft or volume ceilings, etc.)
Living room replaced by parlor/retreat/library
Nine-foot ceilings on first floor; eight- to nine-foot ceilings on second
floor
Exterior walls of vinyl or fiber cement siding or brick
Staircase in foyer
Front porch
Fiber-optic network, programmable thermostat, structured wiring system,
multiline phone system
Both shower stall and tub in master bathroom, including a toilet with
separate enclosure
UPSCALE HOME
Two-story home with 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 bathrooms and 4 or more bedrooms
Two-story entry foyer
One- or two-story family room
Formal living room is likely, but might be replaced by
parlor/retreat/library
Nine-foot ceilings on first floor; nine- to 10-foot ceilings on upper floors
Exterior of stone, brick, stucco or fiber cement
Two master-bedroom suites
Outdoor kitchen with grill, sinks, refrigerator, cooking island
Outdoor fireplace, pool/spa, audio/TV equipment, lighting
Programmable thermostat, structured wiring, multiline phone system,
multizone HVAC, remote-control fireplaces, instant hot water in
bathrooms/kitchens, lighting control system, monitored burglar/fire/toxic gas
alarm system
SOURCE: National Association of Home Builders
