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Huckabee win has impact in many ways

BY TOM BRUNE and LETTA TAYLER | tom.brune@newsday.com
letta.tayler@newsday.com

11:37 PM EST, January 3, 2008

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DES MOINES, Iowa - Buoyed by a wave of Christian conservative support, Mike Huckabee pulled off a major upset victory here yesterday, forcing one-time Iowa frontrunner Mitt Romney into a do-or-die contest against John McCain in New Hampshire in just four days.

The solid victory of the one-time Baptist minister, winning 34 percent with most of the 1,781 precincts reporting, dramatically re-aligns the Republican presidential race and possibly plays into the unconventional national strategy of Rudy Giuliani.

The Huckabee win is also a major setback for Romney, who far outspent and out-advertised Huckabee in this key first presidential primary contest, and a boost for McCain, whose respectable finish only helps his chances of pulling out a win in New Hampshire.

"Most of the pundits said when you are outspent at least 15 to 1 it's impossible to win the election," said a jubilant Huckabee, flanked by family and action-movie star Chuck Norris. "Tonight we proved that American politics is still in the hands of ordinary people like you."

Romney acknowledged his loss but said he would keep campaigning. "You win the silver in one event, it doesn't mean you're not going to come back and win the gold in the final event, and that we're going to do," he said.

Romney, who spent an estimated $7 million on ads here, the most of any Republican, came under criticism by Huckabee and McCain for running what they considered negative ads about them and their pasts.

"I think the lesson of this election in Iowa is, one, you can't buy an election, and two, that negative campaigns don't work," said McCain as he campaigned in New Hampshire. "They don't work there and they don't work here in New Hampshire."

Following Huckabee, Romney won 25 percent, Fred Thompson and McCain tied for third with 13 percent, Ron Paul won 10 percent and Giuliani won just 4 percent.

All candidates remained in the running after last night's caucuses, although Thompson and his aides had sounded as if he might consider dropping out before the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 8.

Giuliani had lowered expectations low enough in Iowa that he probably has not been hurt by his poor showing here, but he did suffer something of an embarassment by finishing behind his foil and nemesis in GOP debates, libertarian Paul.

"We did not put a lot of effort in Iowa," Giuliani said, as he offered congratulations to Huckabee from Hialeah, Fla. where he flew yesterday to emphasize the importance of Florida's Jan. 29 primary for his chances in the race.

"I think he's got a real big victory there," Giuliani said.

The Huckabee win derails one of Giuliani's biggest concerns, that Romney's strategy of building momentum by winning in Iowa and New Hampshire would swamp his own back-loaded strategy. Giuliani's best chance of winning is if there is no clear front runner in the party when New York, California and 20 other states hold primaries on Feb. 5.

"For Mayor Giuliani, his strategy has always been he would essentially give Iowa short shrift," said Quinnipiac pollster Peter A. Brown. "But he's got to do better in New Hampshire. He can't get 4 percent in New Hampshire."

Now, Giuliani must campaign hard enough to stay ahead of Huckabee, who just trails him in New Hampshire in recent polls.

"That is now Giuliani's biggest fear," Brown said. "If Huckabee can finish third in New Hampshire, it's like McCain finishing third in Iowa."

Anticipation of a victory built during the day in the Huckabee campaign headquarters here.

Before the results were announced, Huckabee's national campaign manager Chip Saltsman said, "I think we have won just by being here."

He added, "No matter what, we have taken on a Washington special-interest group and a campaign that spent unlimited money while we spent very little, yet people all around Iowa connected with Mike Huckabee's message and I think that gives us a great opportunity to come out of Iowa and move onto the next states no matter what."

If McCain pulls out a win in New Hampshire, something that many pollsters and analysts say is possible, the Jan. 19 South Carolina primary -- the first in the South in the state that determined the 2000 Republican nomination -- could turn into a showdown between Huckabee and McCain.

"This is a great victory. Fantastic," said Huckabee's grinning campaign chairman Ed Rollins, answering "yes" when asked if the margin of victory was beyond expectations.

Rollins declined to speculate on whether the race would boil down to Huckabee vs. McCain in South Carolina, saying only: "There are still several candidates in there and we will take them one at a time."