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Win invigorates Obama campaign

BY MARTIN C. EVANS | martin.evans@newsday.com

11:12 PM EST, January 3, 2008

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DES MOINES, Iowa - Barack Obama's dramatic first place win in Iowa's caucuses has given his once quixotic campaign instant stature, momentum and credibility as the Democratic field moves on to key primaries in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

By overcoming early odds to upset former first lady Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Illinois senator can expect larger crowds and additional campaign donations in the coming weeks, political analysts say.

Potential supporters are increasingly likely to view his campaign as more than a long-shot bid by an African-American candidate, and instead a challenge to America's political status quo.

"This is a strong argument for him that in the general election he is electable," said Ron Walters, noting Obama, an African-American, won in a state where the black population is less than 3 percent. "There is a thirst for bringing people together across race, across class, across party, and he has tapped into that," Walters said.

Walters was among several political observers who said Obama's wide victory in Iowa is likely to increase interest in his candidacy among New Hampshire voters, boosting his chances there where polls have showed Clinton leading.

A victory for Obama in the Granite State would put him in a commanding position with respect to both Clinton, who has counted on New Hampshire to provide a firewall, and to former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

That is because Obama's Iowa victory is likely to excite black voter enthusiasm in South Carolina, the first primary state where blacks make up a significant portion of the electorate. That state's primary is Jan. 26 and recent polls show Obama and Clinton running neck-and neck.

Clinton has led in New Hampshire for months. But she has seen her once wide lead over Obama shrink substantially.

The stakes are even higher for Edwards, who observers say may be persuaded to drop out of the race if his second-place finish in Iowa is followed by a listless performance in New Hampshire. Several recent polls have not been encouraging for Edwards, showing him hovering just below 20 percent.

"If Obama wins New Hampshire I think Edwards is out of the race, and that sends up a continuing death match between Clinton and Obama for the rest of the primaries," said University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientist Charles Franklin. "It would put the two titans together, they have plenty of money."

Brian Gentry, a Des Moines attorney and Democratic political activist, said Obama's apparent strong showing among independent Iowa voters indicates he could do well in states more influenced by conservatives.