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GOP's hold on Nassau vanishes

In a county that has been Republican for more than 100 years, the number of registered Democrats overtakes Republicans by a slim margin.

BY SID CASSESE | sid.cassese@newsday.com

10:18 PM EDT, October 8, 2008

Ronald Reagan would not recognize Nassau County, as its Democratic leaders yesterday said they have a voter registration edge over the Grand Old Party.

The late President Reagan "once said 'when a Republican dies and goes to heaven it looks a lot like Nassau County.' [But] not any more," county Democratic chairman Jay Jacobs said gleefully at a news conference on the steps of the State Supreme Court Building in Mineola.

The difference in numbers provided by the Nassau County Board of Elections, is small, 328,604 to 328,477. But in a county that has been Republican for more than 100 years and with nearly 80,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats just seven years ago, the change is momentous.

"And the trend is continuing. A thousand new Democratic registrations came in today," said Jacobs, adding that they are coming in at a rate of three to one against Republicans.

But Nassau and state Republican chairman Joseph Mondello dismissed the reversal of roles. "The Democrats should wake up to the fact that party labels really don't matter any more . . . Victory at the polls is determined by the quality and qualifications of the candidates," he said. "Politics is a cyclical business, so claiming victory based on anything other than election results is always a mistake."

Jacobs attributed Nassau's Democratic ascendancy to "[County Executive] Tom Suozzi and the Democratic majority in the county legislature - the Republicans broke their contract with the people, and they know it - the excitement of the primary race betweenU.S. Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, and the charisma of Obama himself."

Jacobs and others, though, see Nassau's Democratic registration increase as not only likely to give the county to Barack Obama in the presidential race, but possibly help give the state Senate to the Democrats.

"In 2004, Kemp Hannon [of the 6th senatorial District] won by about 16,000 votes with a Republican enrollment advantage of about 16,000 votes," said Jacobs. "His advantage today is under 1,600 votes, indicating he will have a tight race."

Herb Rosenbaum, a Hofstra University professor emeritus of political science, who said Nassau's Democratic registration jump is mainly because of Obama, and if the Illinois senator carries New York, then the Republicans could lose the state Senate.

There is some GOP concern.

"Now the Republican Party will have to work that much harder to present its credentials as the party of the hardworking forgotten middle class, the one whose work ethic and personal values built suburbia," said former Republican U.S. Sen. Alfonse D'Amato.