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Troops likely to start pulling out next year

BY CRAIG GORDON | WASHINGTON BUREAU

December 18, 2005

WASHINGTON - Trying to buy time with a public impatient over Iraq, President George W. Bush has repeatedly railed against the dangers of setting an "artificial timetable" for bringing home U.S. troops.

Yet the White House has signaled that it does have a timetable - all but saying that troops are likely to start pulling out of Iraq in 2006, possibly enough to cut the U.S. presence there in half, some analysts predict.

Just about everyone around Bush - except Bush himself - has said so.

That may well change tonight as the president delivers a major speech on "the way forward in 2006" in Iraq, his spokesman said yesterday. It will be Bush's first address from the Oval Office since he announced the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003.

Bush will point to Thursday's Iraqi election, marked by high turnout and low violence, to convince war-weary Americans his policy is working in Iraq. He hopes to end the year on a high note after taking a beating in the polls.

The Pentagon's top general in Iraq announced plans Friday to bring out the troops sent to Iraq to bolster election security. That move would bring the U.S. troop level from a recent high of 160,000 to the more usual level of 138,000 by early February.

But it is unclear whether Bush will say that further reductions are in the offing next year - something other members of his administration have hinted at frequently.

The top U.S. diplomat in Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, said Thursday's elections in Iraq set the stage next year to "reduce numbers significantly." Even Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said that the exit of the 20,000 troops could be just the start.

All have been careful to note that Bush will act upon the recommendations of commanders - a standard for withdrawal that Bush seems sure to invoke again tonight.

But some of those commanders also have tipped their hands, envisioning a draw-down to 100,000 U.S. troops or fewer by late next year.

It's all part of the White House's two-track appeal to win back the public on Iraq - trying to demonize some Democrats for calling for a quick withdrawal while signaling to the nation that Bush understands the U.S. commitment can't be open-ended.

"That's the irony of this whole debate. Everybody knows that 2006 is going to be a transitional year," said Rep. Steve Israel (D-Huntington), who opposes an immediate withdrawal.

Meanwhile, no matter what Bush decides next year, some of his allies in the "coalition of the willing" already are voting with their feet.

A half-dozen U.S. partners including Britain and Japan have signaled they may start pulling out troops in 2006, while Bulgaria and the Ukraine have said their 1,250 total troops will start leaving this month.

All told, analysts believe as many as half of the 24,000 non-U.S. foreign troops in Iraq could be out by next year - leaving the task to the remaining U.S. forces and more than 200,000 Iraqi security forces.

After months of urging Americans to "stay the course," Bush now says added political stability in Iraq and stronger Iraqi forces ultimately will lessen the need for U.S. troops.

It will be weeks before the shape of the coalition government is known. And it will take another several months until the Iraqi constitution is finished.

Until those issues are worked out, several analysts said, the question of whether the insurgency can be quelled won't really be known.

Yet there are political and military pressures on Bush. Republicans worry a public backlash against Iraq could cost them control of Congress next year. Military commanders also worry about a "broken" force from repeated Iraq deployments.

Bush already has a Pentagon rotation plan that could reduce troops to 92,000 in 2006 - though Pentagon officials insist that plan is not final.

Meanwhile, Sen. Joseph Biden (D-Del.) predicted Friday the Bush administration would withdraw up to 50,000 of the remaining 138,000 troops by August of next year - in part to reassure American voters before they go to the polls next November.

Anthony Cordesman, a defense analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said he believes troop levels could get as low as 60,000 to 70,000 by year end, but said it's too early to tell whether that's the right move.

"You have a polarized U.S. debate between the [stay to the] bitter-enders and the bugger-outers, but it isn't terribly relevant to what's happening in Iraq," Cordesman said.