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Newsday poll

BY CRAIG GORDON | craig.gordon@newsday.com; Juliann Vachon contrib

October 12, 2008

Democrat Barack Obama has opened up a double-digit lead over Republican John McCain on Long Island, according to a new Newsday poll - winning a nearly 2-to-1 edge among voters most fearful of an economic calamity.

The Newsday poll found Obama holding a 15-point lead over McCain among registered voters in Nassau and Suffolk counties, 45 percent to 30 percent. That margin grew to 50 percent to 33 percent among those who say they're most likely to vote Nov. 4 - a sign that Obama's message of change is resonating with middle-class suburban voters who hold the key to winning the White House.

One factor that could make the race tighten significantly come Election Day: In both counts, 17 percent of voters said they're not sure who they'll pick, or wouldn't answer the question.

A double-digit victory for a Democratic contender on Long Island wouldn't be unprecedented. Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole by that margin in 1996 and Al Gore did the same to George W. Bush in 2000.

Still, Suffolk GOP Chairman Harry Withers questioned whether the poll artificially inflated Obama's support, coming as it did amid Wall Street's white-knuckle sell-off, when voters are looking to punish the party in power, including McCain. "Your gut reaction is going to be, 'Let's change everything,'" Withers said of voters, and Obama would gain disproportionately.

In addition, the poll taken between Oct. 1 and Oct. 7 coincided with a nationwide surge in support for Obama, as the nation's economic woes intensified.

Economics drive Obama support

But the Newsday poll, conducted ahead of the presidential debate at Hofstra University this week, offers clear evidence that the economic crisis is sending voters toward Obama in a meaningful way, and in numbers big enough to ultimately put Long Island into the Democrats' column.

Nearly two-thirds of Long Islanders cited the economy as their top concern - no other issue even reached double-digits. About 54 percent of those likely voters are backing Obama, compared with 29 percent for McCain.

"Our country is a mess economically. You can't get credit. The kids can't get student loans," said Dana Ehlich, 42, of East Islip, a registered Republican who is planning to vote for Obama. "I view him as being fresh and new with new ideas, and I'm willing to take that risk with him. I think we need change, and I think it's going to be the same thing with McCain."

Perhaps most surprising is that an Island once considered a bastion of Republicanism is moving so decisively toward a Democrat - and an African-American Democrat at that, a man who would become the nation's first black president.

A negligible 5 percent of voters told pollsters they would take race into account when they chose between Obama and McCain. But nearly 1 in 5 respondents said they believed some friends and family members would - a sign that Obama still faces racial hurdles on his path to the White House.

"My concern is, when voters get into the voting booth, will they vote for a black man?" said Judith Raff, 71, of Jericho, who is supporting Obama.

Saul Maluth, 80, of Hicksville, said he believes the nation's problems will override any lingering hesitation voters might feel about backing Obama.

"I think people are more interested in what's happening in the economy - the stock market goes down and down and down - and so they're focused more on that than worrying about what the color of his skin is," said Maluth, who is leaning toward Obama.

Changes since 2000

Also striking in the poll is the collapse in support for McCain, whose "maverick" persona in 2000 allowed him to beat then-Gov. George W. Bush in the GOP primary on Long Island.

In this poll of 761 likely voters, McCain fared poorly across the board - trailing Obama among both men and women, in Nassau and Suffolk counties and among all races, income and educational groups. The two roughly split voters 65 and up and independents, with a small edge in both to Obama. McCain carried a single group - Republicans. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

"I want someone who's been around the block several times, and that's McCain. I'm not saying he has all the answers but I just think he's better equipped to handle foreign affairs than Barack is," said Camille Pikowsky, 68, a retired bookkeeper and registered Republican from Massapequa.

Obama also benefited from a strong anti-war sentiment on the Island, as about two-thirds of voters support having a timetable to pull U.S. troops out of Iraq, one of Obama's signature issues and sharpest differences with McCain.