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Obama set to announce VP; Clinton a long shot

BY CRAIG GORDON AND NIA-MALIKA HENDERSON | craig.gordon@newsday.com; nia.henderson@newsday.com; Th

August 20, 2008

WASHINGTON - Barack Obama is poised to announce his running mate any day now, and all signs say it won't be Hillary Rodham Clinton - even though Clinton told supporters on Long Island just last week that she'd take the job if offered, two Democratic sources said.

With speculation swirling about Obama's long-awaited vice presidential choice, Clinton made clear at an East Hampton fundraiser Aug. 10 that she didn't expect Obama to pick her for his running mate and that the decision was his and his alone.

She also told the donors that "of course, she would say yes," because she wouldn't turn down the opportunity to serve, recalled one Democrat who was there. "But she made it very clear she's really not counting on it, and she was urging all of her supporters to get beyond the speculation."

Most Democrats view Clinton as a long shot pick at best - and Clinton insiders said yesterday they haven't seen anything that would lead them to think the Obama-Clinton "dream ticket" is in the offing. "It's not anything she's expecting, and not anything she's shooting for," said one Clinton source.

Obama's campaign yesterday gave one clue that he's made a decision - announcing that he would appear side-by-side with his running mate Saturday in the city where he launched his presidential campaign, Springfield, Ill.

But the announcement was mum on when Obama would announce his vice-presidential pick - raising the prospect of a late-week announcement ahead of the Saturday appearance. The campaign plans to reveal the choice in a text message to supporters.

Obama has been tight-lipped on his thinking, but political buzz is focused on three names: Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh and Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine. Biden said yesterday, however, "I'm not the guy."

One woman - Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius - is also believed to be in the running.

Picking a woman other than Clinton would seem to throw gasoline on the fire among her most ardent supporters, who already are pledging marches and other pro-Hillary activities at the Denver convention.

As the days go by without a choice, some Democrats are talking up the once seemingly unthinkable match of Obama and Clinton - saying it would be just the kind of jolt Obama's campaign needs, heading into his party convention in a statistical tie with John McCain.

"It would be such a shocker at this point because so many people have written it off," said Democratic consultant Dan Gerstein. "I'm not saying it's what he would do, but if he has quietly kept her in the mix, it would have a powerful effect to kind of come out of the blue."

Clinton supporters argue she would help Obama win over her primary base, particularly blue-collar voters and older women. She is campaigning on Obama's behalf tomorrow in Florida.

But Team Obama privately has been cool toward the idea of Clinton in the No. 2 slot - with many supporters viewing her as the very embodiment of the Washington culture Obama wants to change.

Then there's the issue of Bill Clinton - both what role he would have in an Obama administration and questions about donors for his presidential library, whom the Clinton campaign refused to reveal.

Still, Gerstein knows it's possible to keep the choice a secret until the very last minute - his old boss, Joe Lieberman, didn't know he was going to be Al Gore's running mate in 2000 until he heard it on the news.

CONTENDERS

The list of potential running mates for Barack Obama is widely believed to have narrowed to these four:

SEN. JOSEPH BIDEN

DELAWARE

PROS: As chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Biden, 65, would bring a wealth of foreign policy experience. Just this past weekend he was in Georgia at the request of President Mikhail Saakashvili.