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Joba works in 'pen, but should start at end

Ken Davidoff

March 20, 2008

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We all knew this day was coming. Never did there lurk any true mystery over how Joba Chamberlain would begin his first full season in the major leagues.

As Brian Cashman said of Joba, back on Feb. 22, "If he starts at the front end [of the season], you're playing with fire."

So this was the plan all along, and at least manager Joe Girardi made it clear yesterday that he didn't know what would happen from here.

That makes two of us. I don't understand how Chamberlain is going to get from this point to the starting rotation, where the Yankees have him pegged for the long term.

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To reiterate what this space opined about a month ago, the better plan would be for the Yankees to feature a six-man rotation, which would both prevent Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy from reaching their innings limit and put Chamberlain in the rotation when they want him there the most. In October.

Six-man rotations could very well be the next baseball trend.

The Red Sox, World Series champs twice in the last four years, reportedly contemplated the idea this past winter. Pitchers on both the young side and the old side can benefit from them. Certainly, you can expect the Mets to give Pedro Martinez an extra day of rest whenever the schedule allows for it.

On the Yankees, only Chien-Ming Wang would not want the surplus down time. And if that really became such an issue, the Yankees could pitch Wang every fifth day to give everyone else additional rest.

Putting Joba in the bullpen clearly has its short-term merits.

If he so much as approaches the dominance he exhibited in last year's two-month run, then the Yankees might have the best setup man in baseball.

But therein lies the problem. In that same interview last month, Cashman pointed out that some of the game's best starting pitchers - Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano, for instance - began their careers as relievers. Not as setup men, however; do the research, and you'll discover that the Twins used their two studs as jacks-of-all-trades before easing them into the starting rotation.

Now that the Yankees have committed to Chamberlain as their top setup man, how do they eject him from that role without disrupting the team? A contending team doesn't fix something that isn't broken, after all. Girardi conceded there was no easy solution to that conundrum.

And if Joba spends the entire year as the setup man, what does that do for his future innings ceiling? Last year, Chamberlain totaled 112 1/3 innings, putting him in line for a 2008 ceiling of about 140 innings. But if he records 100 innings this year, how does that impact his limit for 2009? Would he still not be able to start full time?

This has been a shaky Grapefruit League for Chamberlain, who has a 6.14 ERA in 7 1/3 innings. But only a nincompoop would infer from that small sample size that Joba is better off in the pen. He's a 22-year-old kid who still has so much to learn. The best way for him to develop all four of his pitches - fastball, curveball, slider and changeup - is to start.

And the Yankees' best path to an October parade, likewise, is for Joba to start. The difference between the 1996-2000 Yankees and the 2001-07 Yankees may be "chemistry," just a tiny bit. But the far greater difference has been starting pitching, particularly in the postseason.

In their last three years, totaling 13 playoff games, the Yankees have received three quality starts (six or more innings pitched, three or fewer runs allowed) from their starting pitchers. No wonder they haven't won a series.

The person on the Yankees' roster most likely to buck that trend is Chamberlain, because he has the best stuff on the staff.

The Yankees' motivations are sensible. Yet there's got to be a path that will both protect Chamberlain and give the Yankees a better chance at the World Series title. If Chamberlain isn't starting in October - and with this move in the books, you'd have to bet against that - the Yankees' chances at October success are diminished.