Homecourt a real advantage in the NBA playoffs

Ken Berger

4:02 PM EDT, May 17, 2008

Chris Paul (right) and the New Orleans Hornets will try to beat Tony Parker and the San Antonio Spurs at home in Game 7 of a Western Conference semifinal. The home team has won every game in the series. (Matt Slocum/The Associated Press / May 17, 2008)

If David Stern isn't too busy reading court documents in Tim Donaghy's federal gambling case, he might want to convene a special Board of Governors meeting this week in New York. The topic? Renaming his league the NCA - as in National Conspiracy Association.

Stop fighting it. Get it out in the open. People will appreciate the honesty. No matter what happens in the NBA playoffs - no matter how compelling or boring the games are or how much the TV ratings soar - Stern's league always seems to be battling one conspiracy theory or another.

Last year, it was the infamous leaving-the-bench suspensions in the San Antonio-Phoenix series, without which Mike D'Antoni might still be coaching the Suns and Mark Jackson would be coaching the Knicks. This playoff season, conspiring minds want to know: What's up with the dominance of home teams? Why do the Celtics look like the '86 Celtics at home and the '06 Knicks on the road?

There must be some reason, some untoward influence poisoning the integrity of the games, because that is always how professional basketball is perceived in the national sports consciousness. Somebody must be up to no good.

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Home teams are 51-16 in the playoffs thus far, a .761 winning percentage. Road teams have been winless in three series (Atlanta-Boston, Cleveland-Boston, and San Antonio-New Orleans). In each of five other series spanning the first two rounds, a road team took only one game.

The disparity is even more pronounced in the second round, where home teams are 21-2. The only road victories in the conference semifinals thus far were recorded by the Pistons in Game 4 at Orlando (90-89) and the Lakers in a Game 6 closeout win at Utah Friday night (108-105).

If the trend continues, someone invariably will call for the NBA to make some absurd change to its playoff format, like switching from 2-2-1-1-1 to 1-1-1-1-1-1-1 or playing all games at a neutral site, like Rucker Park.

I say, whoa. Let's hold the hysteria a little while longer. Homecourt advantage is part of basketball and always has been. And there isn't enough evidence to make any valid claims about how this year's playoffs have unfolded.

In the past four regular seasons, home teams have won exactly 60 percent of NBA games (2,952-1,968). In the previous three postseasons (2004-05 through 2006-07), homecourt advantage has been slightly more pronounced, with home teams recording a .627 winning percentage (158-94).

Since the NBA went to a 16-team postseason in 1984, home teams have a .664 winning percentage in the playoffs, according to research by SI.com. So that means if you take last four postseasons, home teams actually have won slightly less than usual. Even including this year's statistical aberration, home playoff teams are 209-110 (.655) since 2004-05.

So the law of averages says homecourt advantage, much like the price of gas, was due to bounce back.

"Random chance," one Western Conference general manager said when asked about the homecourt disparity this year, particularly the 21-2 record in the second round. "A rough look at it says that has about a 1-in-100 chance of happening."

Besides, let's not forget that the playoffs aren't over yet. It stands to reason that as the better teams advance to the conference finals and finals, they'll be more apt to win on the road. In fact, that's exactly what happens. In the past 10 years, home teams are 102-67 in the conference finals and NBA Finals, a .604 winning percentage. That's much closer to the larger sample size of regular season games than the statistical blip in this year's playoffs.

So before we draw any grand conclusions about what's wrong with the playoffs this year, let's get to the end of the playoffs first. If Cleveland stuns the Celtics at home Sunday, or if the Spurs do what the Spurs do Monday night in New Orleans, what will the conspiracy theorists say then?

I know. They'll say those two games were an aberration.

Nash likes Mike for Knicks

Suns point guard Steve Nash said during a promotional trip to New York Friday that Mike D'Antoni was willing to make the coaching adjustments team president Steve Kerr asked him to make. The problem was, D'Antoni was so miffed at Kerr for going public with the dispute that he never seriously considered patching things up with the Suns.

D'Antoni coaching the Knicks "should be exciting for New York," Nash said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. "I think he's a terrific coach - extremely bright - and I think he's going to do a great job with the team. I think the city's going to love him. It's going to be a breath of fresh air for New Yorkers. They've got a lot of work to do. They've had so much negativity surrounding the team, and if there's anyone who can really pull off some optimism and positivity, it would be Mike."

Around the Rim

Heat guard Dwyane Wade has been feeling no pain in his surgically repaired left knee while working out in Chicago with the Knicks' Quentin Richardson and Michael Jordan's personal trainer, Tim Grover. Wade is eyeing a comeback in time to be selected for the U.S. Olympic team in late June. ... If Cavs guard Eric Snow retires, look for him to be added to Larry Brown's staff in Charlotte. Snow will be a head coach someday, and would have made a great addition to the Knicks' bench. But his plan all along has been to join Brown on his next stop and learn from him. ... Indiana's Jermaine O'Neal bought a house in Las Vegas and plans to spend most of the summer there, working with renowned trainer Joe Abunassar in hopes of reviving his career. O'Neal played only 42 games this past season due to a knee injury and is on the trading block - though the $44 million he is owed over the next two seasons stands in the way. ... Allen Iverson could be plotting a Vince Carter-like opt-out July 1, hoping to land one more fat contract soon after turning 33. The Nuggets will likely call his bluff.