Biden's fraught call on arms for Israel

President Joe Biden’s statement on Wednesday that he will stop the shipment of offensive weapons like bombs and artillery shells to Israel if Israel goes ahead with the planned ground invasion of Rafah, the southernmost city in the Gaza Strip, shocked many of his pro-Israel supporters. Many see the move as a betrayal, even though many other forms of U.S. aid — including weapons for missile defense systems — will continue. Meanwhile, those on the right who have long tried to portray Biden as a false friend to Israel are having a “we told you” moment. Donald Trump, Biden’s Republican rival in the November election, jumped at the opportunity to score some points, saying that Jews who voted for Biden should be “ashamed of themselves.”

Should Israel supporters panic? Should Biden supporters worry that this apparent pivot away from Israel could cost Biden the election?

It’s far too early for answers or predictions. But a few points are worth making.

From the start of the war last fall, when Israel struck back against the Hamas terror attack of Oct. 7, Biden has been under strong pressure from the left to stop or at least scale down U.S. support for Israeli operations in Gaza. His pro-Israel position is almost certainly going to cost him some votes on the progressive left — and in the Arab American community.

Some have said that if Biden’s intent is to win those votes back, it’s a misguided attempt: He’s unlikely to win many of them, but is likely to alienate far more pro-Israel voters. But the calculus may be different. The president and his advisers may feel that the operation in densely populated Rafah — home to numerous refugees who fled other parts of Gaza — will result in civilian deaths and suffering on such a scale as to repel large numbers of ordinary Americans.

Among the many uncertainties is whether the ground operation in Rafah is as necessary to Israel as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserts. There is some dissension among Israeli officials themselves. Some observers doubt that the Israeli military can destroy the remnants of the Hamas fighting force in Rafah. Many fighters may escape and regroup, as they have already done in other areas.

Nor is it known exactly what Biden will do. So far, he says that Israel’s assaults against Rafah have not crossed the “red line” since troops have not entered residential areas. Later, he may rescind the freeze if he concludes that Israel has done enough to get civilians out of harm’s way. Or he may let Israel carry out the invasion with its own stock of munitions and resume deliveries later.

It is worth noting that other administrations, too, have withheld military aid from Israel as leverage — notably Ronald Reagan in 1982-83 during Israel’s war in Lebanon, first to make sure weapons export laws were not being violated and then to persuade Israel to withdraw its troops.

There is little doubt that Biden’s announcement of a pause in aid, made during an interview and not in an official appearance, was a blunder. But this is not his last word, and much depends on how events unfold from here on. One Israeli military official stressed that despite disagreements, U.S. aid during this war has been “unprecedented.” The president can still repair his rift with Israel supporters, which is essential to his success. But Israel’s leadership, too, must do more to reduce its operations’ death toll.

Opinions expressed by Cathy Young, a writer for The Bulwark, are her own.

By Cathy Young

Cathy Young is a writer for The Bulwark.