Dems would love to 'swing' a win in Suffolk's CD1
Nancy Goroff, left, John Avlon and Nick LaLota. Credit: James Escher, Lynsey Addario
From a distance, it is tempting to characterize the prospective Democratic primary race between John Avlon and Nancy Goroff in Suffolk County as an ideological test between a centrist and a progressive in a district that has glowed bright red for a while.
Goroff, with a lauded academic background in chemistry, has carried out an underdog’s fight in the First Congressional District before. In 2020, she ran for and won the Democratic Party’s nomination to take on incumbent Rep. Lee Zeldin, who then defeated her in the general election by nearly 10 percentage points. Goroff also was endorsed by the left-of-center Working Families Party.
During that race, overshadowed by the COVID-19 pandemic and the police slaying of George Floyd, the powerful Suffolk PBA posted and criticized a photo of Goroff holding up a sign at one gathering proclaiming “COST of RIOTGEAR for 1 POLICEMAN EQUALS COST of PPE for 31 NURSES #BLACKLIVESMATTER.” She also came out for a health-care public option (like many other progressives) in a bid to offer a contrast to the pro-MAGA Zeldin whose 2020 win came despite Trump’s national loss.
Framing Goroff's main rival, former CNN analyst and anchor Avlon, as an ideologue of the right or left would be tough. At one time, Avlon worked as a speechwriter in the Republican New York City mayoral administration of Rudy Giuliani, and was a senior fellow in the conservative Manhattan Institute.
Avlon, now a practiced media critic of the current GOP and of extremism generally, might not have too hard a time explaining his presence in the Democratic camp. He long since parted ways with Giuliani, who was never really a principled conservative or liberal.
Despite an edge in enrollment, Democrats of CD1 are electoral underdogs and form one of many battlefronts in the nation’s party divide. Their party’s operatives talk not about policy fine points but which candidate has a better shot at unseating freshman Rep. Nick LaLota and thus adding to the House Democratic caucus headed by Rep. Hakeem Jeffries.
The end of any incumbent’s first term is traditionally regarded by the opposing party as a unique chance to run a successful challenge for the seat. With another Joe Biden versus Donald Trump race atop the ballot, LaLota’s lack of seniority gives the Democrats an extra bit of urgency.
The “out” party in Suffolk thus hopes CD1 can still be a “swing” district as it was in prior decades. One Democratic insider said privately on Wednesday that a special redistricting in February made the district “insignificantly better for Trump.” Both sides are looking hopefully to CD1’s high number of unaffiliated or “blank” voters to swing their way.
Long Island Democrats also seem sold on the belief that “moderation” or “centrism” will work at a time when unaffiliated voters might see Speaker Mike Johnson as in the grip of the radical right. That’s the Democratic organization's take-away from Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi’s win in a special election to succeed the expelled and indicted George Santos in neighboring CD3.
Lest he be forgotten, Santos last month brought his circus act east, to the CD1 race, by saying he’d petition to challenge LaLota in a GOP primary. LaLota and his fans said they'd look forward to examining Santos’ fake signatures. The famous fabulist punted, vowing instead to run in November somehow as an independent.
Every campaign, no matter how tense, needs some comic relief.
Columnist Dan Janison's opinions are his own.
Dan Janison is a member of the Newsday editorial board.
