The difference between a Trump victory and a Biden victory

It’s impossible to predict with confidence who will win the presidency of the United States in November 2024.

President Joe Biden seems likely to win the popular vote. He received 7 million more votes than Donald Trump in 2020, and the fundamental partisan lines that separate our nation seem unlikely to shift significantly in 2024.

But maybe they will. Some polls show Trump leading Biden. In any case, we don’t decide our elections by popular vote. Out of millions of votes, a few thousand in critical states could determine the outcome in the Electoral College.

In short, the election is a toss-up, which calls for a realistic look at what will happen if each man wins.

If Trump wins: Trump’s policy positions are often vague. It’s not always clear where he stands on abortion, for example, and he recently suggested—maybe inadvertently—that he would be open to cuts in Social Security and Medicare. In fact, in 2020 the Republican Party’s reluctance to commit to detailed policies was expressed by its failure to publish a platform.

Policy ambiguity creates a vacuum that could be filled by “Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise,” an 887-page document produced by The Heritage Foundation. The “Mandate” hasn’t been endorsed by Trump as yet, but it represents a detailed blueprint for a remake of the federal government that would appeal to Trump.

The “Mandate” calls for lower corporate taxes, further restraints on abortion rights and rejection of measures to limit climate change. Most important, it transfers power away from the so-called administrative state in the direction of the White House.

In short, if you want a sense of what might happen if Trump is elected, the “Mandate” wouldn’t be a bad place to start.

What else would a Trump victory entail? It could mean the end of NATO, but certainly the end of Ukraine. A second Trump administration would probably be friendlier to authoritarians: Hungary’s president, Viktor Orban, recently enjoyed a congenial visit to Mar-a-Lago.

At the least a Trump victory would make history: For the first time our nation will have elected a man who still denies the results of the last election.

If Biden wins: A Biden victory is less complicated and less earthshaking. Depending on the makeup of the House and Senate, we might expect a realignment toward the left, including efforts to restore reproductive rights and reinforcement of the social safety net. Efforts will probably be made to save Ukraine and to reconfirm our support for NATO.

Above all, a Biden victory would be a recommitment to the classic narrative of normal American politics, the tug-of-war between “big” government and “small” government.

You might have the impression that I prefer a Biden victory. But that’s irrelevant; everything here is either verifiable fact or a plausible, defensible conjecture. Here’s another plausible conjecture:

The most important difference between a Trump victory and a Biden victory is that if Trump wins, Biden will hand over power peacefully, just as President Barack Obama did in 2017; if Biden wins, Trump will reject the result.

In fact, a peaceful acceptance of a Biden victory by Trump and his millions of committed, well-armed followers is impossible to imagine. We have every reason to believe that they will resort to violence to overturn the election. That’s what Jan. 6 was all about. And a recent American Enterprise Institute poll indicates that 39% of Republicans believe that political violence is sometimes necessary and justified.

In short, it’s naive to believe that the Trump era will end without bloodshed, and it’s fatal to fail to prepare for it. The question will be whether a new Biden administration and the millions who support it are prepared to commit the violence that will be required to suppress a second attempt at insurrection.

Too dramatic? Don’t take my word for it. Last Saturday in Ohio, Trump said that if he is not elected, “It’s going to be a blood bath for the country.” He should be taken seriously and literally.