Trumpism is no fluke

When Donald Trump was elected president, many analysts saw the result as a fluke resulting from Hillary Clinton’s unpopularity and her campaign errors.

They expected it all to go away in four years.

Well, those of us who felt that way have been proved at least partially wrong. Though Trump’s election was something of a fluke and he lost the White House four years later, neither he nor his movement has gone away. Indeed, the cancer in our politics called Trumpism is showing continuing signs of metastasizing.

That means it will likely remain a permanent part of the political landscape, regardless of this year’s results.

And that’s because the former president and his followers are working to ensure they will maintain their hold on the GOP and its attendant units well beyond 2024. Their success marks a historic shift in power from more institutionalist-minded Republicans to those beholden to an individual and his unproven claims that the 2020 election was rigged.

Just consider:

1. The recent installation of Michael Whatley and Lara Trump at the top of the Republican National Committee exemplifies the extent to which Trump’s forces have taken over the GOP party structure. The next few months will see Trump-dominated Republican National Convention delegations install pro-Trump committee members where they hadn’t previously done so.

That will affect decisions on such things as the party’s rules for its next nominating contest, in 2028, regardless of what role Trump himself may be playing at that time.

2. The Trumpification of the Republican House and Senate leaderships continues apace. Mike Johnson’s selection as speaker of the House reflected a significant victory by the pro-Trump Freedom Caucus over the party’s institutionalists. Johnson was a leading supporter of Trump’s legal challenges to President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory.

And if the GOP loses the House this November, a more rabid Trumper, such as Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, could well replace the mild-mannered Johnson as the House Republican leader.

In the Senate, meanwhile, GOP leader Mitch McConnell’s decision to step down will mean a new leader less antagonistic to Trump. And if he wins in November, a more avid ally like Montana Sen. Steve Daines could well supplant the current front-runners, South Dakota Sen. John Thune and Texas Sen. John Cornyn.

Earlier, McConnell’s failure to mobilize a majority of Republican senators to support continued aid for Ukraine showed that, like the House, the Senate GOP is moving toward Trump’s America First views.

Meanwhile, more GOP elected officials outside Congress have joined in echoing Trump’s positions, from denying the 2020 results to opposing Ukraine’s battle against Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked invasion.

Pro-Trump governors run Texas, Florida and many other GOP-controlled state governments.

3. The long-standing GOP issues establishment in Washington, exemplified by Reaganite groups like the Heritage Foundation, is being supplanted by more aggressive pro-Trump organizations that are developing proposals and personnel for a new Trump presidency.

Publications from Axios to The New York Times have detailed the effort of leading Trump administration figures like immigration hard-liner Stephen Miller, former budget chief Russell Vought and ex-White House chief of staff Mark Meadows to create and fund these organizations.

Unlike the chaotic onset of Trump’s initial term, a new one would begin with detailed plans to install pro-Trump personnel and launch pro-Trump policies, starting with Trump’s vow to “shut the border” and “drill, drill, drill” on Day One.

In a 2023 speech to the Conservative Political Action Conference, Trump boasted, “when we win in 2024, we will do it again even stronger, faster, and better.” The reason: “I know the people that have to do the job and can do the job.”

According to The Times piece by Robert Draper, key policy and personnel groups include:

The American First Legal Foundation, created by Miller to file legal challenges against the Biden administration and recruit lawyers to serve as departmental general counsels in a second Trump administration.

The Center for Renewing America, a policy development and messaging organization run by Vought, who looms as a key policy developer for a new Trump presidency. Politico says it is drafting plans to endow a new administration with “Christian nationalism” values and adopt hard-line policies like invoking the Insurrection Act to use the military to quell protests.

The Conservative Partnership Institute, which Draper called “a full-service nerve center for right-wing activity and a breeding ground for the next generation of Trump loyalists.” Its top executives include former South Carolina Sen. James DeMint, who was fired from the Heritage Foundation for seeking to link it closer to Trump, and Meadows.

If Trump wins, officials and policies from these groups are likely to infuse his new administration. If not, they’ll start preparing for 2028. Whatever Trump’s eventual fate, Trumpism is regrettably here to stay.