The Cuomo standoff: What could happen next?

ALBANY — With some lawmakers demanding his resignation and Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo vowing he won’t step down, the New York political ship is in somewhat unchartered waters.

An investigation into sex harassment allegations against him is underway and the governor is trying to persuade enough of his fellow Democrats to wait for the outcome.

Meanwhile, the deadline for adopting a state budget is less than three weeks away, setting the scene for what one watchdog says will be a "Shakespearean level" of secrecy and deal making.

Here’s a look at where the stalemate stands, possible routes for the Legislature and the side effects it will certainly have on the pending state budget as well as New York’s continued pandemic efforts:

Calls for resignation

Republican leaders in the state Assembly and Senate have called for Cuomo’s resignation. But they have little influence because the GOP holds fewer than one-third of the seats in each house.

Among Democrats, at least two dozen have called on Cuomo to resign — the most significant being Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins (D-Yonkers).

Her statement cleared the way for a few more to join her. But, significantly, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie (D-Bronx) stopped just short, saying Cuomo should evaluate whether he still can govern effectively.

To many political observers, that signaled the Assembly might be more divided.

If Cuomo holds fast …

The three-term, 63-year-old Democrat said there’s "no way" he resigns. If that never changes, state lawmakers have three basic options: Try to build public pressure for resignation, wait for the attorney general’s investigation and findings before determining to take any action at all, or move to impeach.

The last is the political nuclear option.

Led by the party’s progressive wing, some Democrats are pushing for more officials to call for the governor’s resignation. But given Cuomo’s statement, it would seem there’s no critical number that could change his mind. The wild card, legislators said, is whether more allegations emerge which could spur more lawmakers to join the "resign" camp.

How impeachment would work

Similar to federal law and the Trump impeachments, the lower house in New York, the Assembly, would be one to bring charges against an executive.

Assembly Minority Leader Will Barclay (R-Pulaski) has circulated an "impeachment resolution" trying to get members to sign it. But because the GOP is in the minority, it is seen as a just a pressure tactic for now.

The practical way politics work in New York is the party in majority never brings a bill or resolution to a vote unless it can be approved by majority votes alone — without minority help.

In the Assembly, this means Heastie would never allow a vote on a bill or resolution unless at least 76 of the 107 Democrats support it — 76 votes are needed to approve a measure in the 150-member house.

So even if, say, 50 Democrats supported an impeachment resolution and all 43 Republicans did too — providing 93 votes total — it still won’t get to the floor because it wouldn’t have 76 Democrats behind it.

State law is different

Unlike federal law, if an executive is impeached he is immediately barred from exercising the duties of his office until the Senate votes to convict or acquit.

This stands in contrast to federal law under which then-President Donald Trump continued to serve through his two impeachment trials.

In New York, the law implies that Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul would assume the governor’s duties, experts say. But it’s also possible that Cuomo could challenge the prohibition in a lawsuit, former state ethics committee chairman Karl Sleight said.

Budget due

The state budget, due April 1, normally is the biggest issue lawmakers tackle all year. It is still the most far-reaching piece of legislation, even if it has taken a back seat to the harassment and nursing home investigations.

This time, a governor fighting for his political life will be negotiating billions of dollars in spending with legislators openly questioning whether he can still be effective in office.

As always, the governor holds almost all the leverage — power to force through his policies and give away goodies like additional school aid to coax support.

"It’s going to be super tense and super political," John Kaehny of Reinvent Albany, a watchdog group, said. "It could be an all-time Albany special for secrecy, backstabbing and a Shakespearean level of backroom deal making. The basic political truce during COVID-19 has been shattered."