Davidoff: No reason for panic . . . right?

Common sense tells you that this will pass.

That the Yankees, loaded with more talent than "Boardwalk Empire," will meet the minimal standards to qualify for the playoffs and then right themselves in time to fight hard for a second straight world championship.

But there's a reality about common sense that is fueled, fittingly, by common sense itself:

It doesn't apply to small sample sizes.

"We're still in a good spot," Joe Girardi said last night after the Yankees' fourth straight loss, 7-3 to the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. "There are seven games left to play, and our club needs to win three games."

As I heard the Yankees' manager say those words, my brain triggered back to September of 2007 and 2008, when many Mets players and personnel also spouted math to back up their supposed calm.

Actually, if the Yankees (92-63) defeat Boston (86-68) in tonight's series finale, that would clinch a tie for the American League wild card with Boston; one additional Yankees win or Red Sox loss then would officially bury Terry Francona's team. So as few as two wins, with a magic number of three, could do the trick.

Right now, however, the Yankees look and feel as though they're entering "the downward spiral into oblivion," to steal a phrase the Mets' R.A. Dickey uttered Friday. Just one win seems like a monumental task.

Their starting pitching has been dreadful, with a 9.92 ERA in these past four games, prompting Alex Rodriguez to break his 16-month-old pledge to issue only vanilla quotes with this pointed remark: "I think when we're playing from behind, it's hard to really play with an edge when you're down five or six runs."

Yankees rookie Ivan Nova proved no match for Boston's Jon Lester, who didn't even allow a hit until the sixth inning. Dustin Moseley - standing in for the innings-restricted Phil Hughes - will go for the Yankees against the Sawx's Daisuke Matsuzaka tonight. With all due respect to Moseley, he's not the sort of guy whom anyone would regard as a savior.

Moseley over Hughes symbolizes the Yankees' recent approach, executed by Girardi and supported by general manager Brian Cashman, of prioritizing health and rest over playoff seeding. With the Rays winning again last night, increasing their AL East lead to 1½ games over the Yankees, the "playoff seeding" part is being addressed quite nicely.

"I haven't managed any differently than I did the rest of the year," Girardi said, and the facts back him up on that. It just smells different when you're using the likes of Royce Ring, Chad Gaudin and Moseley in big September spots. It represents attempted tranquility, but it makes outsiders nervous.

More than anything, indeed, the Yankees need their starting pitchers to perform better. They should, based on history. An early big inning, also very possible, wouldn't hurt, either.

Before they get three wins, they need one to stop the bleeding. Because right now, Girardi - tight haircut, tight face and loose regard for first place - personifies this Yankees team. They're not necessarily playing "anxious" ball, which is tough to characterize anyway. But when you bring in Tony Dungy to speak and the team turns in a result like yesterday's, that's going to reflect poorly upon the manager.

"We're fighting until the end [of games],'' Girardi accurately noted, and he said he doesn't feel the need to hold a team meeting at this point.

Everything should be OK with the Yankees. Really, it should. That doesn't mean it will be OK.

Counting on the odds to come through for you at this time of the season may give you perspective. Or it may give you a false sense of security. It's on Girardi to emphasize the former and eliminate the latter.