Most of the jobs lost to COVID-19 recession have been recouped
Long Island employment has recovered to near pre-pandemic levels. Credit: Howard Schnapp
Employment on Long Island has nearly bounced back from the brief-but-deep recession that was caused by the coronavirus in 2020, and the jobs recovery has been quicker than from recessions earlier in this century, economists said on Thursday.
The Island had 1.34 million jobs in February, or 11,900 fewer jobs than three years earlier as COVID-19 struck. That represents an employment shortfall of just 0.9%, according to an analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Long Island ranked 20th on a new list of the nation’s 100 largest metropolitan areas for employment shortfalls from the COVID-induced recession, ahead of Honolulu, New Orleans, Rochester and Toledo, among others. That's an improvement over a 2021 list when the Island ranked 14th.
“Significant progress has been made,” said Jaison R. Abel, an economist and head of the New York Fed’s urban and regional studies department. The wider New York metropolitan area, which includes Nassau and Suffolk counties, “has nearly gained back all of the jobs that were lost.”
On the Island, five of 13 economic sectors have surpassed their pre-COVID-19 employment level, with business services being the standout: 13,338 more jobs than in February 2020, the bank found.
Among the eight sectors with employment shortfalls, retail has been the slowest to recover, with 10,740 fewer jobs than three years ago. Personal services, wholesale trade and education are each between 3,000 and 4,100 jobs below their 2020 total payroll.
Positions that “require face-to-face contact have not come back,” Abel said during a virtual briefing for journalists. “On the other hand, we’ve seen really strong gains in business services, where the jobs are well-suited for remote work.”
Fewer Long Islanders commuting daily to jobs in Manhattan, because of hybrid and remote work schedules, may have helped the leisure and hospitality sector in Nassau and Suffolk to surpass its 2020 employment level by 1,733 jobs, according to Jason Bram, an economist at the New York Fed.
“The same people who would’ve been grabbing coffee at a Starbucks in the city, grabbing lunch in the city and maybe going out to dinner and seeing a play are now going to the sandwich place and the restaurant” near where they live on Long Island, he said. “That’s why I think leisure and hospitality has come back on Long Island and not in New York City.”
But Bram said the Island’s economic fortunes remain closely tied to the city, where most of the jobs lost to the two-month COVID-19 recession have been regained. The city sectors that have exceeded their February 2020 employment level include health care, information, finance and business services.
“Manhattan bore the brunt of the drop [in jobs in 2020] and remains in a somewhat deeper hole than the outer boroughs, where the jobs shortfall has gone away,” he said.
Bram also said the employment recovery in the city and on Long Island has been swifter than the recoveries after the 2007-09 and 2001 recessions. It took about five years after the 2007-09 recession and about four years after the 2001 recession for all the lost jobs to be restored, he said.
“Now, granted [the COVID-19 recession] was a very different kind of recession and the sheer job loss was greater, but the snapback has been much quicker,” Bram said in response to a Newsday question. “It doesn’t concern me that we aren’t all the way back after three years.”
James T. Madore writes about Long Island business news including the economy, development, and the relationship between government and business. He previously served as Albany bureau chief.
