Bacon shortage hogwash, but prices to rise

Bacon lovers can relax. They'll find all they want on supermarket shelves in the coming months, though their pocketbooks may take a hit.

U.S. agricultural economists are dismissing reports of a global bacon shortage that lent sizzle to headlines and Twitter feeds last week. The economics of the current drought are likely to nose up prices for bacon and other pork products next year, by as much as 10 percent. But the talk of scarcity is, simply put, hogwash.

"Use of the word 'shortage' caused visions of [1970s-style] gasoline lines in a lot of people's heads, and that's not the case," said Steve Meyer, president of Iowa-based Paragon Economics.

"If the definition of shortage is that you can't find it on the shelves, then no, the concern is not valid. If the concern is higher cost for it, then yes."

Bacon scarcity fears swept across social and mainstream media last week after a trade group in Europe said a bacon shortage was "unavoidable." The report caused much consternation over a product that used to be merely a breakfast staple, but nowadays flavors everything from brownies to vodka.

The alarm was quickly dismissed by the American Farm Bureau Federation as "baloney."

The drought in the U.S., the world's biggest supplier of feed grains, undeniably will affect pig production by driving up feed costs. The Corn Belt's lack of moisture twice has prompted the U.S. Agriculture Department to slash its forecast for this year's corn output. The government now expects U.S. production of the grain to amount to 10.8 billion bushels, the least since 2006. Those lowered expectations sent prices of corn to record highs through much of the summer. Feed generally makes up about 60 percent of the expense of raising a pig.

The USDA suggested Friday that pork supplies will tighten next year as the nation's breeding stock and intended birthings of litters of pigs likely will drop due to high feed costs.