Economists see modest growth next year

The U.S. economy will grow more than previously estimated through 2012 -- with little chance of another recession -- led by gains in business investment and commercial construction, a survey shows.

Gross domestic product will expand 1.8 percent this year, more than a September forecast of 1.7 percent, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics issued Monday in Washington. The world's largest economy, it said, will grow 2.4 percent in 2012, consumer spending, by 2.1 percent.

About 30 percent of respondents said the recovery will continue at a "moderate pace" with unemployment falling "only gradually," the report said. The share predicting another economic slump dropped to 7.4 percent from 13 percent in the last survey in September.

"Despite a relatively subdued outlook, the panel estimates that the odds of a second recession remain low," Shawn DuBravac, chief economist at the Consumer Electronics Association and the chairman of the survey, said in a statement. "Business spending remains a strong positive, and housing starts are expected to continue to rise from the bottom seen in 2010. The panel remains concerned about debt-related issues in Europe."

Payrolls will increase by 100,000 workers a month, on average, during the fourth quarter of this year and improve to gains of 130,000 by the end of next year, according to the group's estimates.

The jobless rate will fall to 8.7 percent by the end of 2012. NABE economists identified "excessive unemployment" as their single greatest concern.