Recovery in LI jobs post-pandemic stronger than expected, revised data show

Long Island’s job market recovery from the pandemic has been more robust than initially thought, with new numbers showing the region added more jobs than first estimated, state data shows. 

While the Island’s employment picture has remained relatively steady with incremental improvements since 2020, new revisions published by the state Labor Department Thursday showed the region saw a gain of 49,100 jobs in 2022 year-over-year, higher than the 39,500 job gain originally estimated.

The number of jobs gained in 2021 was also revised up to 59,600 from earlier estimates of 56,600 jobs.

“The revisions show that the recovery after the pandemic was stronger than we had originally estimated,” said Shital Patel, labor market analyst with Labor Department’s Hicksville office. “It’s definitely good news all round. We have upward revisions to both years.”

The state Labor Department releases benchmark revisions of the previous year’s jobs data every March.

The monthly employment data released by the state are estimates of job counts based on responses from the Current Employment Survey (CES) sample of nonfarm establishments. Those estimates are then revised using job counts reported on unemployment insurance tax reports that most employers in the state are required to file.

In addition to the annual revisions, the Island also saw continued job growth year-over-year in January.

In January, the Island added 33,600 jobs, or 2.6%, from the same time a year ago, state data shows. The total number of nonfarm jobs in the region was 1.31 million the first month of the year.

Job gains were particularly pronounced in the higher-paying led professional and business services sector, which added 10,500 jobs compared with a year ago in January.

Eight of the nine private industry sectors tracked by the state saw job gains in January compared to a year ago. Behind professional and business services was education and health services at 9,000 jobs, leisure and hospitality with a gain of 7,200 jobs, and construction with a year-over-year gain of 4,800 jobs. The trade, transportation and utilities sector lost 2,400 jobs year-over-year. 

The Island’s total nonfarm job count is 7,600 jobs, or 0.6%, below pre-pandemic levels in January 2019, Patel said.

Despite the growth, economist John Rizzo said the data suggests that the labor market may be tighter than expected, a potential worrying sign as the nation overall grapples with the effects of continued inflation.

With a tight job market, he said, there is upward pressure put on wages and employers compete to find and retain workers. That puts upward pressure on inflation, which “also makes the Fed more likely to raise interest rates even further."

“This is definitely a double-edged sword,” he said.