'Hunger Games' boosts Lions Gate shares

Shares of Lions Gate Entertainment jumped 4.5 percent Monday, to $15.18, on the strong showing of its movie "The Hunger Games."

True to form for the stock market, however, the big run-up was in anticipation of the launch: Shares of the Santa Monica, Calif., film and television production company are up more than 80 percent so far this year.

The first of four "Hunger Games" films broke the record for a non-sequel over the weekend with a $155-million haul in the United States and Canada. That showing beat expectations and gave it the third-highest opening weekend ever. And the "Twilight" finale, also a Lions Gate film, is set for release in November.

These two movies could generate about $450 million in profit combined, estimates Cowen & Co. analyst Doug Creutz. The adventures of Katniss Everdeen alone, the bow-wielding heroine of "Hunger Games," could translate to six to seven years of higher earnings, Creutz says, adding that Lions Gate may post its first profit in five years when its fiscal year ends on Saturday.

More than two-thirds of Lions Gate's revenue comes from the movie business, so its first blockbuster means a lot. It had been getting by with staples like Tyler Perry comedies and the "Saw" horror series.

The rest of Lions Gate's revenue comes from television productions such as "Mad Men," which kicked off its fifth season Sunday. Although the company doesn't reap ad revenue from the hit TV show, success with audiences keeps it in demand as a production company. It also boosts sales of DVDs and licensing revenue from reruns.

Plus there's another show in the hopper: Charlie Sheen's "Anger Management," which debuts in June on FX. If the first 10 episodes go well, the company will automatically be signed up for several years of work.

With a better-than-expected opening weekend, several analysts nudged their profit estimates up for Lions Gate. Some said the stock should hit $16 or higher over the next year.