LI may be bright spot in NY manufacturing

Manufacturing activity in New York State continued its slowdown in July, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey released Friday by the New York Federal Reserve.

The index of manufacturing activity in the state rose to -- 3.8 in July from -- 7.8 in June, but continued its negative status for the second month after hitting a high of 21.6 in April. A score of less than zero is negative.

Although manufacturing was a sector that spearheaded growth in the wake of the recession, that trend may end as commodity prices rise and U.S. exports decrease due to the weakening of overseas economies, said Pearl Kamer, chief economist for the Long Island Association advocacy group.

The outlook for Long Island might be more positive than for New York State because its manufacturing sector is rooted in research and development for new technologies, she said.

"Long Island has a different manufacturing economy than the rest of New York State -- it has a high-tech manufacturing economy," she said. "I think our manufacturing economy will do very well. Because in the future one of the growth sectors will be technology."

The volume of new orders for New York manufacturers in July fell to -5.5 points from -3.6 in June. In addition, 26 percent of those surveyed said business had worsened in July, compared with 23 percent that reported conditions improving. But the survey also stated that price increases slowed and employment levels were holding steady in the industry.

The outlook in July was also more positive than June's, as future indexes increased 10 points, a forecast of economic improvement in the next six-month period, according to the report. The index is derived from a survey of more than 100 manufacturing executives in New York State.