LIPA (mostly) prepared for onslaught of electric cars

As the first high-volume electric cars head for dealerships, local utilities say that their generators and distribution grids can handle the extra load but that they might have to upgrade transformers or other equipment on local streets where clusters of families own the vehicles.

The Chevrolet Volt, an electric car with a gasoline engine on board to extend its range, goes on sale next month. The Nissan Leaf, a "pure" electric with no gasoline engine to extend its range, is expected to be available in this region next year. Toyota plans to offer a plug-in version of the Prius hybrid in 2012 along with an electric RAV4 SUV and a small electric commuter car. Ford is planning to launch an electric Focus compact and a Transit Connect van next year, and a plug-in hybrid in 2012, while Honda has promised a plug-in hybrid and a pure electric car in 2012 and Mitsubishi and Subaru also have talked about electrics for future sale in the U.S.

But Bruce Germano, vice president for customer services at the Long Island Power Authority, notes forecasts such as that earlier this month by Bloomberg New Energy Finance that, even a decade from now, only about 9 percent of cars sold in the U.S. will be electrics or about 1.6 million and only about one in five 10 years after that. Germano says LIPA doesn't have a specific forecast for Long Island, which has about two million registered motor vehicles now, but says, "It's something we can handle."

In the city, a study done for the Bloomberg administration earlier this year forecasts that, by 2015, as much as 16 percent of new vehicles purchased by city residents could be electrics, but it also notes that only 44 percent of households in the city own a car. Said Con Edison spokesman Alan Drury, "We don't expect that the electric car adoption rate will hit levels that will impact the system until after 2020." Con Ed serves the five boroughs and Westchester.

LIPA's and Con Ed's main concerns are scenarios in which several families on one block plug in their electric cars for recharging at the same time on a hot summer evening when air conditioners, pool filters, computers, plasma TVs and other big power users all are running. "It could be an issue," said Germano, "but it would be at a very localized level." Said Drury of Con Ed, "It is possible we might have to upgrade service locally."

Some electric cars can draw considerable amounts of electricity during recharging - often requiring a 240-volt outlet similar to those for electric clothes dryers or large air conditioners. At Nissan's U.S. headquarters in Franklin, Tenn., Mark Perry, product planning director, says the Leaf draws 3,300 watts per hour - equal to two large hair dryers running for hours.

Nissan is recommending that Leaf buyers establish a dedicated 240-volt, 40-ampere circuit to recharge the car. Perry says newer homes with 200 amperes of service should have no trouble accommodating the cars but that the 60 or 100-amp service in older homes could be overwhelmed by an electric car in combination with other heavy users like plasma TVs. Toyota spokesman John Hanson in California says the Prius plug-in will draw only about 1,000 watts, equal to a typical microwave oven, but that the RAV4 electric will need 3,500 watts. "It doesn't sound like much in itself," said Hanson, "but the question is 'What else in the house is running and what are the neighbors running?' If you add it all up it becomes an issue."

Carmakers say they've been consulting with utilities across the country as they develop the cars.

"What we've learned," said Perry, "is that, in the aggregate, the utility companies are not worried at all."