Oil prices jump, gas prices follow after stalled peace talks with Iran

Gasoline prices on Long Island reached an average of $4.54 a gallon Monday, following a social media post from President Donald Trump that called Iran’s response to a proposed peace deal "totally unacceptable."

Oil prices spiked Monday, pushing local gasoline prices up along with them. The price of Brent crude oil, a global benchmark, hit $104.21 a barrel Monday, up $2.71, according to The Associated Press. Before the U.S.-Israel war with Iran began on Feb. 28, oil was trading at $72.79.

Long Island's average gas price at the start of the week was nearly 10 cents higher than the $4.45 average price reported last Monday. 

On Feb. 27, a day before the war began, average Long Island gasoline prices sat at an average of $2.86 a gallon, according to AAA data provided to Newsday.

The price of gasoline on Long Island and across the nation has a direct relationship with the rising price of oil, traditionally increasing by about 25 cents a gallon for every $10 increase in the price of an oil barrel, local experts say.

Gasoline prices on Long Island hit a record high of $5.05 cents in June 2022 following U.S. sanctions on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine. While AAA experts said they can't project if prices will reach $5 a gallon locally, high oil prices have made it a possibility. 

“Keep watching the price of crude oil," said Robert Sinclair Jr., senior manager of public affairs at AAA Northeast. "As long as it remains high and keeps going higher, anything is a possibility."

Additionally, Sinclair said, ongoing hostilities in the Middle East mean it will take more time and money to do the much-needed repairs to crude oil production and distribution infrastructure already damaged in the region. 

Elevated oil and gas prices could potentially be the norm for the rest of the year, said Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service, which provides global pricing and analytics for the energy sector.

Even if a peace deal were reached by the end of the week, it could still take months for repairs and for slow-moving oil vessels to make their way back to the region, Cinquegrana said. 

Despite high gasoline prices, though, Memorial Day weekend travel, traditionally one of the busiest travel times of the year, is likely to go on as normal this year, according to AAA surveys and projections. 

A record 45 million Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles from their homes  for the holiday weekend between May 21 and May 25, according to AAA projections. However, Sinclair said, this year's increase in travelers, the majority of whom will be drivers, over last year "barely" qualifies as a new record when compared to travel numbers in 2025.

“Despite substantially higher fuel prices than last year, many people continue to prioritize holiday leisure travel," Sinclair said.