Mobile data could become scarce, less affordable

Is access to mobile data the new wealth?

If you look at some of the recent numbers coming out about data use on cell phones and tablets, you might be able to make that case.

A new study by Arieso, a British company that analyzes mobile traffic, said that 1 percent of all users generate 50 percent of all traffic on mobile networks. The top 10 percent of users consumed 90 percent of mobile bandwidth, which includes phone calls. But most of this bandwidth is devoted to data, which includes Internet, audio and video.

The 99 percent vs. the 1 percent -- "Occupy Bandwidth?"

These figures are not so surprising when you consider that only about 13 percent of the world's cellphones are smartphones. In other words, 87 percent of the world's cellphones can only make calls and cannot receive data.

The penetration rate of smartphones exceeds 30 percent in the United States, Germany and Britain.

Although it seems transparent that wide-open data plans and smart devices are privileges of the wealthy, or those living in the wealthy nations, Arieso says the heaviest bandwidth users didn't break down along socioeconomic lines.

The biggest bandwidth users had 3G modems hooked to laptops; this serves as an Internet connection when Wi-Fi is not available. Some people and businesses prefer to use it rather than public Wi-Fi for security reasons.

Sixty-four percent of extreme users were using a laptop, a third were using a smartphone and 3 percent had an iPad.

According to a study by phone maker Ericsson, the heaviest mobile data users were watching video 40 percent of the time and surfing the Net 20 percent.

There also is an indication that newer and more powerful phones encourage heavier bandwidth usage. Users of the iPhone 4S, the newest iPhone, download 2.76 times as much data as the average user of the older iPhone 3G, according to Arieso.

One factor might be Siri, the voice-activated "personal assistant" available only on the 4S, because the tool makes it easier to access services that require server contact over a data connection. Another reason might be apps that are frequently hitting a server.

So what does it matter?

To the user, other than the cost of data service, it doesn't.

But to the carriers, it presages a possible crisis. Mobile broadband use for data has been exploding. Bandwidth is by no means endless.

In fact, it is getting more scarce. The major carriers have bought spectrum licenses from the government for billions of dollars. Since wireless is essentially a radio system, the more spectrum a provider has licenses for, the more data it can transmit.

In 2008, the government auctioned off spectrum that became available when the conversion to digital TV was completed. Verizon and AT and T together spent more than $16 billion for licenses.

Verizon has announced a plan to buy unused spectrum from cable companies in return for a deal to co-market services.

Julius Genachowski, chairman of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission, spoke at the Consumer Electronics Show recently and warned that if Congress doesn't let the agency move forward with its plans to free up more wireless spectrum, it risks damaging the economy.

One proposal being considered in Congress would remove some FCC flexibility in managing the spectrum auction, and another would prevent the FCC from designating any new spectrum as unlicensed.

The FCC has overseen 80 auctions and needs to continue to have the flexibility to do so, Genachowski said. Blocking more unlicensed spectrum would prevent innovations similar to Wi-Fi and Bluetooth, which both run on unlicensed bands.

So as mobile data use grows for things such as streaming video and more people worldwide get devices capable of receiving data, phone carriers will need to provide much more data service, which means more spectrum.

If mobile data becomes scarce, it becomes more expensive and then only the wealthy will have access to it.