Thanksgiving dinner to be cheaper this year, farm group says

It will cost less to bring the star of Thanksgiving to the dinner table this year, but Americans are still feeling the pinch of rising grocery prices.

Cheaper turkey is helping to reduce the total cost of Thanksgiving dinner this year compared with the holiday last year, despite weather-related disasters and a shortage of farmworkers pushing up vegetable prices, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.

The national average cost for a classic Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people has fallen 5% to $55.18, according to the farm bureau's 40th annual Thanksgiving dinner survey, which was completed by volunteers who checked food prices in stores and online in the first week of November.

This is the third consecutive year the average price of a classic Thanksgiving dinner has declined, but it doesn’t offset the dramatic cost increa ses  that led to a record high in 2022 of $64.05, which was 20% more expensive than in 2021, according to the Washington, D.C.-based farm bureau.

“It’s encouraging to see some relief in the price of turkeys, as it is typically the most expensive part of the meal,” American Farm Bureau Federation economist Faith Parum said in a statement Wednesday. “Farmers are still working to rebuild turkey flocks that were devastated by avian influenza, but overall demand has also fallen.”

A 16-pound turkey, whose average price fell 16.3% to $21.50, accounts for 39% of the total cost of a classic holiday meal for 10 people, the farm bureau said.

Aside from turkey, items on the farm bureau’s shopping list that are cheaper on average compared with prices a year earlier include 14 ounces of cubed stuffing mix, down 9% to $3.71; one dozen dinner rolls, down 14.6% to $3.56; and a 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries, down 2.8% to $2.28.

The costs of other items on the list rose this year, such as 3 pounds of sweet potatoes, up 37% to $4; a 1-pound veggie tray of carrots and celery, up 61.3% to $1.36; and 1 pound of frozen peas, up 17.2% to $2.03.

Natural disasters were a factor in the higher prices of vegetables, the farm bureau said, citing North Carolina — the nation’s largest producer of sweet potatoes — suffering hurricane damage. 

The continued shortage of farmworkers and rising farm wages also contributed to higher costs, the farm bureau said.

“It’s important to note that fresh vegetables and potatoes are traditionally low-cost items, so an increase of just a few cents can dramatically affect the cost change percentage year-to-year,” the farm bureau said in the statement.

Despite the cheaper holiday meal, overall grocery prices nationwide are 20% higher than they were four years ago — and prices in September rose 2.7% from where they were a year earlier, according to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index.

The price hikes are due to several factors, including supply chain disruptions, inflation and widespread tariffs enacted this year on imported goods, said Scott Hoyt, senior director of consumer economics at Moody’s Analytics, headquartered in Manhattan. 

"When prices go up, consumers are going to look for substitutes that are less costly ... generic [products], trading down in quality," he said.

On Friday, President Donald Trump signed an executive order lowering tariffs on beef, coffee, bananas, tomatoes and other agricultural products amid consumers' growing concerns about food prices. Those worries are being reflected in Trump's declining public approval ratings on his handling of the cost of living.

Some Long Island residents are making changes to try to cut costs for Thanksgiving this year.

Massapequa resident Jenny Miritello, 47, is leaning toward not cooking the holiday dinner for her family as she usually does, she said Wednesday.

"With the price of ... everything going up, the sides going up, I don't know if I'm going to do it.  I think ... I'd rather order out because the price comes out cheaper," she said.

At Andrew Goldstein's home, Thanksgiving dinner for about 25 people will be held as planned, said the Bellmore resident, adding that the higher costs of paper products, trash bags and detergents surprise him more than the pricier food.

"I think I've worked two jobs for as long as I can remember, so I manage," said Goldstein, 52.

Some retailers have responded to higher food prices by offering Thanksgiving dinner deals.

Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, is offering a basket of items for a holiday dinner for 10 people priced at $40. That is about 25% cheaper than last year's price, but the basket also includes fewer items than the one offered in 2024.

Discount grocer Lidl is selling a bundle of Thanksgiving groceries to feed 10 for $36, which is 20% less than the price last year for a similar group of products.

By Tory N. Parrish

tory.parrish@newsday.comToryParrish1

Tory N. Parrish covers retail and small business for Newsday. She has worked at the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and Observer-Dispatch in Utica, N.Y.