Tomato prices expected to rise at Long Island restaurants, stores after U.S.-Mexico trade deal ends

Fresh tomatoes from Mexico are costing more — projected to rise about 8 cents per pound nationwide  — because of a trade dispute that will affect both consumers and food-related businesses. 

Restaurateurs and food suppliers on Long Island said they hope the dispute, which escalated last week, is resolved by fall, when the local growing season ends and they must rely on imported tomatoes.

“Hopefully, come October, the U.S. and Mexico will come to a better arrangement because prices are just continuously going up” for many vegetables, including tomatoes and avocados, said Tony Kathreptis, co-owner of Caracara Mexican Grill in Farmingdale and East Northport.

“Everybody is going to be affected if an agreement isn’t reached,” he said. “What happens in these situations is you try to not pass [the increased cost] along to the customer, but at some point, you have to.” 

Field grown tomatoes, regardless of their origin, cost $1.74 per pound nationwide last month, on average, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

End of decades-old trade deal

Last week, the United States slapped a 17.09% import duty or tax on most tomatoes from Mexico after ending a bilateral agreement that had been in place in one form or another for nearly 30 years. The countries had agreed to export tomatoes at or above certain minimum selling prices and to eliminate at least 85% of the dumping activity.

The U.S. Department of Commerce terminated the pact, saying it failed to stop the dumping of low-cost tomatoes into the United States.   Ninety percent of imported fresh tomatoes are from Mexico, based on 2023 data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

“For far too long, our farmers have been crushed by unfair trade practices that undercut pricing on produce like tomatoes. That ends today,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in announcing the new import duty on  July 14.

The duty represents the percentage of Mexican tomatoes that have been sold in the United States at unfair prices, Lutnick added.

Jacob Jensen, a trade policy analyst at the conservative think-tank American Action Forum in Washington, estimated that the price of Mexican tomatoes would rise by about 8 cents per pound.

The estimate doesn’t include the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy, which so far has exempted tomatoes and other goods covered by the free trade agreement that he negotiated with Mexico and Canada in 2020.

The White House on Monday released statements from eight domestic producers, none from New York State, citing an increase in sales since the duty was imposed on Mexican tomatoes.

The Mexican government has pledged to support the country’s tomato producers by seeking a new agreement as well as securing additional export markets. 

In Lido Beach, Stephen Rosenbluth, head chef at Maliblue restaurant and bar, said the higher cost of Mexican tomatoes won’t be felt until fall because domestic supplies from Long Island, New Jersey and elsewhere are plentiful in summer.

“If [the trade dispute] carries into the fall though then, there might be a problem,” said Rosenbluth, who owned a restaurant in Merrick for 10 years.

Beef prices soar due to fewer cattle

The cost of tomatoes isn't top of mind now at the restaurants, catering halls and supermarkets that Michael Imbriano sells food to — but it will be once the temperature drops.

“Tomatoes will probably become a topic of conversation towards the fall,” said Imbriano, a sales territory manager for US  Foods, one of the country's largest food-service distributors. “We bring in lots of tomatoes from Mexico and Florida in the fall and winter.”

He said his customers have been focused on beef prices, which are soaring because the number of cattle and calves in the United States is at its lowest level since 1951.

Herd sizes have fallen in the face of droughts, the high cost of buying livestock for breeding and the presence of a flesh-eating parasite in Mexico that ended all imports from that country last year.

The average price of a pound of ground beef rose to $6.12 in June, up nearly 12% from a year ago. The average price of all uncooked beef steaks rose 8% to $11.49 per pound, according to the statistics bureau.

“Beef is at its all time high, and you’re going to see major increases in the next four years,” said Imbriano, who once owned a restaurant and produce business. “Strip steak costs more than filet mignon. … It’s crazy.”