Golden Globes 2014 predictions: Movies

To predict this year's Golden Globe winners, just follow the three rules of real estate: location, location, location.

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association always tends to categorize and divvy up its Golden Globe nominees in kooky ways, and this year is no exception. How did Daniel Bruhl, who takes up half the screen time of "Rush," end up as a supporting actor? What is the melancholy sci-fi tale "Her" doing in the comedy-musical category? Once you figure where an actor or a movie has been placed -- and why -- you might be able to guess the winner.

The most obvious example comes with "12 Years a Slave" and "American Hustle," two rivals in this year's awards race. The former is a profound film about the African-American experience, while the latter is a high-energy crime story featuring white A-listers like Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence. Hmmm, which to choose? The Globes put the slavery movie in the drama category, of course, then cleverly sneaked "American Hustle" into the comedy category, essentially guaranteeing that each will win.

Scan the nominees below and you'll probably spot a few more examples of gerrymandering. If that seems cynical, try looking at this way: 2013 was a surprisingly strong year, with many fine films and terrific performances that deserve recognition. For once, maybe the Globes have the right idea.

"12 Years a Slave"

"Captain Phillips"

"Gravity"

"Philomena"

"Rush"

Cate Blanchett, "Blue Jasmine"

Sandra Bullock, "Gravity"

Judi Dench, "Philomena"

Emma Thompson, "Saving Mr. Banks"

Kate Winslet, "Labor Day"

Chiwetel Ejiofor, "12 Years a Slave"

Idris Elba, "Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom"

Tom Hanks, "Captain Phillips"

Matthew McConaughey, "Dallas Buyers Club"

Robert Redford, "All Is Lost"

"American Hustle"

"Her"

"Inside Llewyn Davis"

"Nebraska"

"The Wolf of Wall Street"

Amy Adams, "American Hustle"

Julie Delpy, "Before Midnight"

Greta Gerwig, "Frances Ha"

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Enough Said"

Meryl Streep, "August: Osage County"

Christian Bale, "American Hustle"

Bruce Dern, "Nebraska"

Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Wolf of Wall Street"

Oscar Isaac, "Inside Llewyn Davis"

Joaquin Phoenix, "Her"

Sally Hawkins, "Blue Jasmine"

Jennifer Lawrence, "American Hustle"

Lupita Nyong'o, "12 Years a Slave"

Julia Roberts, "August: Osage County"

June Squibb, "Nebraska"

Barkhad Abdi, "Captain Phillips"

Daniel Brühl, "Rush"

Bradley Cooper, "American Hustle"

Michael Fassbender, "12 Years a Slave"

Jared Leto, "Dallas Buyers Club"

Alfonso Cuarón, "Gravity"

Paul Greengrass, "Captain Phillips"

Steve McQueen, "12 Years a Slave"

Alexander Payne, "Nebraska"

David O. Russell, "American Hustle"

"Countdown to the Red Carpet" (4-6 p.m. Sunday, E!); "1st Look: Live on the Red Carpet" (6-7 p.m., NBC/4); "Live From the Red Carpet" (6-8 p.m., E!) and "Golden Globes Arrival Special" (7-8 p.m., NBC/4) will offer fashion play by play and interviews on the red carpet.

"The Golden Globes" (8-11 p.m., NBC/4) -- Tina Fey and Amy Poehler again host from the Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills, Calif.