Golden Globes: Oppenheimer, Barbie and Maestro among our critic's picks for the winners

Weird categories, mystifying choices, blatant star-chasing — it’s the all-new Golden Globes!

Following the most turbulent period in the award show’s history, the Globes have been dismantled and reassembled for their 81st edition, which airs Sunday at 8 p.m. on CBS. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the shadowy group that for decades handed out the awards, disbanded after reports that it had no Black members. The Globes as a brand is now owned by Dick Clark Productions, which has produced the telecast since 1993. And the Globes’ longtime broadcasting partner, NBC, has walked away. (The show can be seen live on Paramount+ with Showtime as well as on CBS).

That’s what’s going on behind the curtain; the ceremony itself promises a few new wrinkles. For starters, each category now features six nominees, up from five — a move surely designed to lure more stars to the dining tables. There are also two new categories intended to broaden the Globes’ appeal. One is Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television; it’s predictably dominated by Netflix with five of the six nominations. The other category, with a whopping eight nominees, is Cinematic and Box Office Achievement, which appears to be a “popular” grab-bag that pits “Oppenheimer” against the likes of “John Wick: Chapter 4” and “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour.”

Our host for the evening: the comedian Jo Koy. Like last year’s host, Jerrod Carmichael, he’s far from a household name, but the Globes reportedly couldn’t get several bigger stars to take the job. (Jason Bateman, Will Arnett and Sean Hayes, the trio behind the popular Smartless podcast, turned down the gig, as did Chris Rock, according to CNN.) Ratings for last year’s Globes were a dismal 6.3 million viewers — down from the roughly 18 million who used to watch during the previous decade — so Koy has a low bar to clear.

As for the night’s winners, the old Globes were always unpredictable and the new Globes look much the same. That said, Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” should edge out Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon” in the serious categories, while “Barbie” should turn a handful of its nine nominations into wins. Here are our best guesses as to how Sunday’s show will shake out:

BEST MOTION PICTURE — DRAMA

“Anatomy of A Fall”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“Past Lives”
“The Zone of Interest”
WHO SHOULD WIN “Killers of the Flower Moon,” one of Scorsese’s most ambitious films. As a window onto America’s long history of racism, it’s also one of his most topical.
WHO WILL WIN “Oppenheimer.” This biopic dazzled critics and — despite running well over three hours — it pulled in huge crowds as well. It’s the year’s go-to “serious” movie.

BEST MOTION PICTURE — MUSICAL OR COMEDY

"Air”
“American Fiction”
“Barbie”
“The Holdovers”
“May December”
“Poor Things”
WHO SHOULD WIN “The Holdovers.” Alexander Payne’s deceptively small film — about the friendship between a cranky teacher and a troubled student — packs a huge emotional punch.
WHO WILL WIN “Barbie,” of course. A failure to recognize that female-led blockbuster in this high-profile category would reduce the Globes to irrelevance overnight.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE — DRAMA

Annette Bening, “Nyad”
Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Sandra Hüller, “Anatomy of A Fall”
Greta Lee, “Past Lives”
Carey Mulligan, “Maestro”
Cailee Spaeny, “Priscilla”
WHO SHOULD WIN Bening, as marathon swimmer Diana Nyad — a funny, flawed, maddening and inspirational figure.
WHO WILL WIN Gladstone, a Native American actor whose back story — she nearly quit the business before Scorsese asked for a Zoom meeting — is hard to resist.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE — DRAMA

Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Colman Domingo, “Rustin”
Barry Keoghan, “Saltburn”
Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”
Andrew Scott, “All of Us Strangers”
WHO SHOULD WIN Cooper, by a nose. All kidding aside: Rarely has an actor transformed himself into a character so completely as Cooper did with his portrayal of Leonard Bernstein.
WHO WILL WIN Cooper.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE — MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Fantasia Barrino, “The Color Purple”
Jennifer Lawrence, “No Hard Feelings”
Natalie Portman, “May December”
Alma Pöysti, “Fallen Leaves”
Margot Robbie, “Barbie”
Emma Stone, “Poor Things”
WHO SHOULD WIN Stone. As a revived corpse named Bella, she starts out as a lumbering monstrosity and grows into a sophisticated woman. It’s a marvelous performance, broadly comedic and subtly dramatic all at once.
WHO WILL WIN Stone. But you might want to place a side bet on Margot Robbie here.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE — MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Nicolas Cage, “Dream Scenario”
Timothée Chalamet, “Wonka”
Matt Damon, “Air”
Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Beau Is Afraid”
Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction”
WHO SHOULD WIN Giamatti, back in fine form as the misanthropic teacher we’ve all had.
WHO WILL WIN Giamatti. But don’t discount Jeffrey Wright as a misanthropic author in the daringly funny “American Fiction.”

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE

Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”
Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”
Jodie Foster, “Nyad”
Julianne Moore, “May December”
Rosamund Pike, “Saltburn”
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”
WHO SHOULD WIN Foster. As a gay swimming coach — and a steadfast friend — she’s never seemed so natural and comfortable on screen.
WHO WILL WIN Randolph. Playing a world-weary cafeteria worker, she has snapped up awards from critics’ groups all over the country, and from the National Board of Review.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE

Willem Dafoe, “Poor Things”
Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”
Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
Charles Melton, “May December”
Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things”
WHO SHOULD WIN Downey. After years of playing the larger-than-life Iron Man, Downey here shrinks into the role of Oppenheimer's weaselly rival, Lewis Strauss — and he’s perfect in every scene.
WHO WILL WIN Downey.

BEST DIRECTOR — MOTION PICTURE

Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”
Greta Gerwig, “Barbie”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “Poor Things”
Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
Martin Scorsese, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Celine Song, “Past Lives”
WHO SHOULD WIN Scorsese, who pulls together complicated themes of American identity into a riveting historical epic.
WHO WILL WIN Nolan, whose sprawling biopic of a difficult American figure is also a tremendous achievement (and did about six times better at the box office).

CINEMATIC AND BOX OFFICE ACHIEVEMENT

“Barbie”
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”
“John Wick: Chapter 4”
“Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part 1”
“Oppenheimer”
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
“The Super Mario Bros. Movie”
“Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour”
WHO SHOULD WIN If we’re considering both cinematic and box office achievement, then the winner should be both critically acclaimed and hugely profitable. No movie did that better than “Barbie.”
WHO WILL WIN “Barbie.”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG — MOTION PICTURE

“Addicted to Romance,” performed by Bruce Springsteen, from “She Came to Me”
“Dance the Night,” performed by Dua Lipa, from “Barbie”
“I'm Just Ken,” performed by Ryan Gosling, from “Barbie”
“Peaches,” performed by Jack Black, from “The Super Mario Bros. Movie”
“Road to Freedom,” performed by Lenny Kravitz, from “Rustin”
“What Was I Made For?,” performed by Billie Eilish, from “Barbie”
WHO SHOULD WIN “What Was I Made For?” Eilish’s closing-credits ballad is an existential pop masterpiece, the kind you rarely hear anymore. File it up there with Peggy Lee’s “Is That All There Is?”
WHO WILL WIN “What Was I Made For?”

By Rafer Guzmán

rafer.guzman@newsday.com