This image released by Twentieth Century Fox shows Jennifer Lawrence...

This image released by Twentieth Century Fox shows Jennifer Lawrence in a scene from the film, "Joy." Lawrence was nominated for an Oscar for best actress on Thursday, Jan. 14, 2016, for her role in the film. The 88th annual Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, Feb. 28,, at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. (Twentieth Century Fox via AP) Credit: AP

Whenever Cate Blanchett is in an acting race, the competition should look out. Likewise for Jennifer Lawrence. This year, however, the Oscar for best actress looks likely to go to a lesser-known performer in an underdog film. Expect some head-scratching from the public when she wins. Here’s how this year’s leading actress category is shaping up:

CATE BLANCHETT, “Carol.” As a married woman who has an affair with a department-store shopgirl, Blanchett is marvelous. Director Todd Haynes dresses her up in a gorgeous 1950s wardrobe, too, making this one of Blanchett’s more glamorous roles. In any other year, this award would have been hers.


CHARLOTTE RAMPLING, “45 Years.” She began acting in the 1960s and became one of the most iconic British faces of her generation, yet the 70-year-old actress has earned her first Oscar nod. Rampling plays a woman whose marriage hits a sudden snag, a role that has earned her the best reviews of her career.


BRIE LARSON, “Room.” At 26, Larson isn’t a well-known name, having appeared mostly in supporting roles. (You may have spotted her as Amy Schumer’s level-headed sister in “Trainwreck.”) In “Room,” Larson plays a woman kidnapped and impregnated by a psychopath, a role that earned her nearly universal acclaim and a Golden Globe. An Oscar seems next.


JENNIFER LAWRENCE, “Joy.” This oddball film, a fictionalized biopic of Long Island housewife-turned-entrepreneur Joy Mangano, didn’t work as well as David O. Russell’s other two collaborations with Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook” and “American Hustle.” Still, the film has been an almost-$100-million hit, driven largely by Lawrence’s hear-me-roar performance.


SAOIRSE RONAN, “Brooklyn.” Ronan won the New York Film Critics Circle Award for playing an Irish immigrant in this romantic drama set in the 1950s. Other awards, including a BAFTA, followed. An Oscar looks unlikely, but the nomination may help this sleeper film find a wider audience.

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