Oscars 2013: Our critic's predictions

Thursday's Oscar nominations arrive about two weeks earlier than last year's, which means one thing is certain: As Newsday's official Oscar predictor, I'll be wrong a little sooner.

Last year, I predicted nods for Charlize Theron in "Young Adult," Bryce Dallas Howard in "The Help" and Andy Serkis in "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" -- and struck out on all of them. (I admit that Serkis, playing a computer-animated simian, was a long shot.) But for me, the whole point of predicting the Oscars isn't to get them right, it's to cheer on my favorite underdogs, harrumph at the heavyweights and point out the performances and achievements that moviegoers might have missed.

For instance: Why isn't anyone talking about Jude Law's strong performance as a dull, doughy husband in "Anna Karenina?" Did he play the role so well that no one recognized him? Or take the forgotten horror-spoof "The Cabin in the Woods" -- it mashed up gore and comedy just as cleverly as Quentin Tarantino's "Django Unchained," but it's unlikely to get a single nomination (except from me). As for Zoe Kazan's bittersweet comedic turn as a fantasy-girlfriend in "Ruby Sparks," which she co-wrote, it's at least worth a nod. Right?

We'll find out Thursday morning. Until then, here's what I'm hoping the list of Oscar contenders looks like.

BEST PICTURE

* "Argo"

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* "The Master"

* "Zero Dark Thirty"

* "Silver Linings Playbook"

* "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

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BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

* Hugh Jackman, "Les Misérables"

* Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"

* Bill Murray, "Hyde Park on Hudson"

* Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"

* Denzel Washington, "Flight"

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

* Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"

* Judi Dench, "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"

* Zoe Kazan, "Ruby Sparks"

* Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"

* Quvenzhané Wallis, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

* Dwight Henry, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

* Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master"

* Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"

* Jude Law, "Anna Karenina"

* Matthew McConaughey, "Magic Mike"

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

* Amy Adams, "The Master"

* Sally Field, "Lincoln"

* Anne Hathaway, "Les Misérables"

* Helen Hunt, "The Sessions"

* Penelope Wilton, "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"

BEST ANIMATED FILM

* "Brave"

* "Frankenweenie"

* "ParaNorman"

* "The Pirates! Band of Misfits"

* "Rise of the Guardians"

BEST DIRECTOR

* Ben Affleck, "Argo"

* Paul Thomas Anderson, "The Master"

* Kathryn Bigelow, "Zero Dark Thirty"

* David O. Russell, "Silver Linings Playbook"

* Steven Spielberg, "Lincoln"

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

* "The Cabin in the Woods"

* "Django Unchained"

* "Flight"

* "The Master"

* "Zero Dark Thirty"