'Oppenheimer'? 'Barbie'? Our critic picks who will win, should win the Oscars
Are you Team Stone, or team Gladstone?
Either way, you might be biting your nails before the winner for Best Actress is revealed at Sunday’s 96th Oscar ceremony.
It’s the first time in a while that this high-profile Oscar category has been so tough to call. At this late date, the race has boiled down to two contenders: One is Emma Stone, who plays a dead woman brought back to life in the surreal dramedy “Poor Things,” and the other is Lily Gladstone, who plays a vulnerable Osage woman in Martin Scorsese’s historical epic “Killers of the Flower Moon.”
Lily Gladstone and Leonardo DiCaprio in a scene from "Killers of the Flower Moon." Credit: AP/Melinda Sue Gordon
Let’s look at Gladstone first. A near-total unknown, she almost gave up acting before Scorsese requested a Zoom call. Gladstone wound up playing Mollie Burkhart — a real-life figure drawn into a web of shocking murders — opposite no less a star than Leonardo DiCaprio. She arguably outshone him, first snapping up awards from critics’ groups, then winning two of the strongest Oscar predictors of all: a Golden Globe for best actress in the dramatic category, followed by the all-important Screen Actors Guild award.
VIEWERS' GUIDE
BEFORE THE OSCARS
"Countdown to Oscars: On the Red Carpet Live" (1-4 p.m., ABC/7)
"E's Brunch at the Oscars" (2-4 p.m., E!)
"On the Red Carpet at the Oscars" (4-4:30 p.m., ABC/7)
"E! Live from the Red Carpet" (4-6:30 p.m., E!)
"On the Red Carpet Oscars Preview" (5-6:30 p.m., ABC/7)
"The Oscars Red Carpet Show" (6:30-7 p.m., ABC/7)
"Red Carpet Rundown" (6:30-7 p.m., E!)
THE SHOW
"The Oscars" (7-10:30 p.m., ABC/7) Jimmy Kimmel hosts from the Dolby Theatre
AFTER THE OSCARS
"E! After Party" (10:30-midnight, E!)
"On the Red Carpet After the Awards" (11:30 p.m.-1:30 a.m., ABC/7)
Gladstone, who claims Piegan Blackfeet heritage, is already the first Native American to be nominated for a Best Actress Oscar; a win would be even more significant. But Gladstone’s Cinderella story could be cut short by Stone.
Emma Stone in "Poor Things." Credit: Searchlight Pictures
Stone’s award-season track record for “Poor Things” is full of conflicting omens. She won a Golden Globe for best actress, but that was in the musical/comedy category. (The Academy Awards traditionally favor dramas.) Stone also won the prestigious BAFTA, but that UK award doesn’t always resonate here. And her loss to Gladstone at the Screen Actors Guild — which has a roughly 75% success rate of predicting the four acting Oscars over the past 30 years — is difficult to ignore.
Then again, Stone is in nearly every frame of “Poor Things,” carrying her movie in a way that Gladstone does not. Oscar voters may decide that Stone’s performance is simply more “Oscary.”
A little unpredictability could be just what the Oscars need. (Emphasis on a little: Nobody wants a repeat of 2022, when Will Smith slapped host Chris Rock in front of a stunned audience.) Post-pandemic Oscar ratings have been rising, but they remain at perilously low levels as Hollywood struggles to pull audiences back to theaters. Sunday’s broadcast (7 p.m., ABC/7) could generate more interest thanks to “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer,” two hugely popular movies in competition. The amiable presence of four-time host Jimmy Kimmel can’t hurt. And any suspense before the opening of an envelope is always welcome.
Here's how Sunday’s ceremony is likely to shake out:
BEST PICTURE
Cillian Murphy is J. Robert Oppenheimer in "Oppenheimer." Credit: Universal Pictures/Universal Pictures
“American Fiction”
“Anatomy of a Fall”
“Barbie”
“The Holdovers”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“Past Lives”
“Poor Things”
“The Zone of Interest”
WHO SHOULD WIN
“Killers of the Flower Moon.” It’s an impressive entry in the Scorsese canon, an almost-Western that’s both historical and topical at the same time.
WHO WILL WIN
“Oppenheimer.” Christopher Nolan’s masterpiece has been duking it out with Scorsese’s for the title of Most Important Film of the Year — but it's clear by now that “Oppenheimer” is the popular choice.
ACTRESS
Annette Bening as Diana Nyad in "Nyad." Credit: Netflix/Liz Parkinson
Annette Bening, “Nyad”
Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Sandra Hüller, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Carey Mulligan, “Maestro”
Emma Stone, “Poor Things”
SHOULD WIN
Bening, as the brave, funny and often maddening marathon swimmer Diana Nyad. It's a terrific performance, albeit in a “small” film that hasn't had much awards-season traction.
WILL WIN
Gladstone, for playing an Osage woman caught in a maelstrom of betrayal and murder. Once again, the biggest predictor here is the Screen Actors Guild, which gave her its leading actress award.
ACTOR
Bradley Cooper as Leonard Bernstein in "Maestro." Credit: Netflix/ Jason McDonald
Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”
Colman Domingo, “Rustin”
Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”
Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”
Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction”
SHOULD WIN
Cooper, who completely transforms himself into conductor Leonard Bernstein using his voice, body language and, yes, that amazing prosthetic nose. (Look for its three designers to win the Oscar for makeup.)
WILL WIN
Murphy, as the brilliant but arrogant scientist J. Robert Oppenheimer. If you’re feeling contrarian, though, place a long-shot bet on recent Globe winner Giamatti.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Da’Vine Joy Randolph stars as Mary Lamb in "The Holdovers." Credit: Focus Features/Seacia Pavao
Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”
Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”
America Ferrera, “Barbie”
Jodie Foster, “Nyad”
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”
SHOULD WIN
Foster, as a swimming coach who helps an athlete achieve a lifelong dream. She has rarely seemed so natural and comfortable on screen.
WILL WIN
Randolph, as a working-class cook at a posh boarding school. This one’s a gimme: Randolph has already won at the Golden Globes, the Independent Spirit Awards and the Screen Actors Guild Awards.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Downey Jr. is Lewis Strauss in "Oppenheimer." Credit: Universal Pictures/Melinda Sue Gordon
Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction”
Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”
Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things”
SHOULD WIN
A nearly unrecognizable Downey, who plays the calculating government official Lewis Strauss. You’d never know this bespectacled bureaucrat used to be Iron Man.
WILL WIN
Downey.
DIRECTOR
Director Christopher Nolan, winner of the best film and director awards for "Oppenheimer," poses for photographers at the 77th British Academy Film Awards, BAFTA's, in London on Feb. 18, 2024. Credit: AP/Vianney Le Caer
“Anatomy of a Fall,” Justine Triet
“Killers of the Flower Moon,” Martin Scorsese
“Oppenheimer,” Christopher Nolan
“Poor Things,” Yorgos Lanthimos
“The Zone of Interest,” Jonathan Glazer
SHOULD WIN
Scorsese, whose epic-length movie about Native American exploitation is both an urgent history lesson and a riveting crime thriller.
WILL WIN
Nolan, who also delivered an epic-length history lesson that kept audiences glued to their seats. What’s more, Nolan has already won at the Globes, the BAFTAs and the Directors Guild.
INTERNATIONAL FILM
Sandra Hüller in "The Zone of Interest." Credit: A24 Films
“Io Capitano,” Italy
“Perfect Days” Japan
“Society of the Snow,” Spain
“The Teachers' Lounge,” Germany
“The Zone of Interest,” United Kingdom
SHOULD WIN
“The Zone of Interest,” a Holocaust movie like none you’ve ever seen. It’s unconventional (some might say artsy), but extremely powerful.
WILL WIN
“The Zone of Interest.”
ANIMATED FEATURE
Miles Morales (Shameik Moore) and Gwen Stacy (Hailee Steinfeld) take on The Spot (Jason Schwartzman) in "Spider-Man: Across te Spider-Verse." Credit: Sony Pictures Animation
“The Boy and the Heron”
“Elemental”
“Nimona”
“Robot Dreams”
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
SHOULD WIN
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.” The first film in the franchise took this Oscar for 2019, and the sequel is equally dazzling.
WILL WIN
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.”
ORIGINAL SONG
Billie Eilish performs at the 2021 Austin City Limits Festival in Austin, Texas. Credit: Getty Images/Rich Fury
“The Fire Inside” from “Flamin' Hot”
“I'm Just Ken” from “Barbie”
“It Never Went Away” from “American Symphony”
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from “Killers of the Flower Moon”
“What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie”
SHOULD WIN
“What Was I Made For?” Billie Eilish’s ballad, so full of yearning and wonder, ends the otherwise freewheeling “Barbie” on a deeply moving note.
WILL WIN
“What Was I Made For?”
